July 2026 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds

My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.

Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this recurring study, please see the March 2025 summary.

Last month’s report can be found here.

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FLORIDA

Net Shift Since June: R+13,479

• Good news for Democrats - they had a healthy gain in registrations for the first time in recent memory. Now, the bad news - they still got passed up by a factor of 2.2 to 1 by the Republicans as both parties surged ahead of the upcoming primary. There is no way to describe what is happening to Democrats in the Sunshine State because there is no comparison to this anywhere else in the country - it is a Republican onslaught month after month and people need to start moving to coastal Georgia or the hills north of Atlanta.

• Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds in the next presidential election. Florida appears to be emerging as the premier GOP superstate, passing Texas (although not in order of importance by electoral votes and House seats).

• Races to watch: FL-14 (leaner), FL-22 (leaner), FL-25 (decisive)

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IOWA

Net Shift Since June: D+10,005

• Yep, read that one again. Last month showed the first real gain for Democrats since I’ve been tracking these numbers, and this month brought a huge one, dropping the GOP lead from R+10.8% to R+10.2%. However, this jump is far too drastic to be anything but directly related to the recently concluded primary and should begin to taper back to reality. For comparison’s sake, the GOP gained 17,238 last month and still fell this far behind because independents showed up to pick a party (-33,983 for independents). Democrat energy in a midterm provided the difference.

• Iowa is worth tracking because it has a valid correlation to the shifts in Wisconsin and Minnesota, which cannot be precisely tracked by party registration. Furthermore, Iowa has two extremely competitive House seats that must be watched closely.

• Races to watch: IA-1 (decisive), IA-3 (decisive), U.S. Senate, Governor

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PENNSYLVANIA

Net Shift Since June: D+6,962 Total, R+2,197 Active

• The best news out of the Keystone State in months. With primaries concluded, Republicans made up 2,197 net in the active voter roll. Don’t ask me why there is such a disparity in the overall voter roll (Democrat gain) and the active roll, but I’m tracking both just to keep reconciling these figures.

• Republicans made net gains in 20 of 67 counties since before the primaries started, including in the all-important blue collar bellwethers of Erie and Northampton Counties. There does not appear to be a major realignment back toward Democrats underway despite recent Democrat gains, as most gains were concentrated in heavily urban areas.

• Races to watch: PA-1 (leaner), PA-7 (decisive), PA-8 (decisive), PA-10 (decisive)

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NORTH CAROLINA

Net Shift Since June: D+482 Total, D+2,206 Active

• Rough month for North Carolina Republicans, but early July updates suggest they’re inching back to gains. Democrats gained 2,206 net on the active roll, but have still fallen far behind where they were in the November 2024 election, when Trump won by 3.2%.

• With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina the most likely to flip to Democrats in 2026, with Michael Whatley the Republican nominee.

• Races to watch: NC-1 (leaner), U.S. Senate

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NEW HAMPSHIRE

Net Shift Since June: No Update

• New Hampshire releases quarterly updates, and no update is due until August.

• The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election.

• Races to watch: NH-1 (leaner), U.S. Senate

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ARIZONA

Net Shift Since June: No Update

• I can view registrations change weekly in Pima County and around-the-clock in Maricopa County, but am now shifting this model to update on official Secretary of State releases, which come quarterly. This is to ensure the whole picture is painted, rather than having you see it through glimpses - which can either be overly encouraging or discouraging in these incomplete blips. I had expected Secretary of State Fontes to publish party registration figures by now, but will have to wait until August to analyze them in this monthly release.

• Democrats have been making up significant ground in Maricopa County with primaries around the corner (July 21), but I suspect that is the why here - not a long-term reversal of electoral trend. Arizona’s statewide offices are up for grabs this year, and the Democrats have a real shot at flipping the legislature for the first time since the 1960s, so the battle for voter registration looms large.

• Races to watch: AZ-1 (decisive), AZ-6 (decisive), all statewide offices

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NEVADA

Net Shift Since June: D+4,111

• Democrats have narrowly flipped the party registration lead back from Republicans in what has been a back-and-forth power grab multiple times since the 2024 election. Republicans actually had a nice month, but Clark County carried Democrats to a net pickup of 4,111. The state sits a half-point right of its registration index from when Trump carried the state by 3.1%.

• Races to watch: NV-3 (leaner), all statewide offices

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Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

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