July 2026 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds
My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.
Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this recurring study, please see the March 2025 summary.
Last month’s report can be found here.
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FLORIDA
Net Shift Since June: R+13,479
Good news for Democrats - they had a healthy gain in registrations for the first time in recent memory. Now, the bad news - they still got passed up by a factor of 2.2 to 1 by the Republicans as both parties surged ahead of the upcoming primary. There is no way to describe what is happening to Democrats in the Sunshine State because there is no comparison to this anywhere else in the country - it is a Republican onslaught month after month and people need to start moving to coastal Georgia or the hills north of Atlanta.
Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds in the next presidential election. Florida appears to be emerging as the premier GOP superstate, passing Texas (although not in order of importance by electoral votes and House seats).
Races to watch: FL-14 (leaner), FL-22 (leaner), FL-25 (decisive)
IOWA
Net Shift Since June: D+10,005
Yep, read that one again. Last month showed the first real gain for Democrats since I’ve been tracking these numbers, and this month brought a huge one, dropping the GOP lead from R+10.8% to R+10.2%. However, this jump is far too drastic to be anything but directly related to the recently concluded primary and should begin to taper back to reality. For comparison’s sake, the GOP gained 17,238 last month and still fell this far behind because independents showed up to pick a party (-33,983 for independents). Democrat energy in a midterm provided the difference.
Iowa is worth tracking because it has a valid correlation to the shifts in Wisconsin and Minnesota, which cannot be precisely tracked by party registration. Furthermore, Iowa has two extremely competitive House seats that must be watched closely.
Races to watch: IA-1 (decisive), IA-3 (decisive), U.S. Senate, Governor
PENNSYLVANIA
Net Shift Since June: D+6,962 Total, R+2,197 Active
The best news out of the Keystone State in months. With primaries concluded, Republicans made up 2,197 net in the active voter roll. Don’t ask me why there is such a disparity in the overall voter roll (Democrat gain) and the active roll, but I’m tracking both just to keep reconciling these figures.
Republicans made net gains in 20 of 67 counties since before the primaries started, including in the all-important blue collar bellwethers of Erie and Northampton Counties. There does not appear to be a major realignment back toward Democrats underway despite recent Democrat gains, as most gains were concentrated in heavily urban areas.
Races to watch: PA-1 (leaner), PA-7 (decisive), PA-8 (decisive), PA-10 (decisive)
NORTH CAROLINA
Net Shift Since June: D+482 Total, D+2,206 Active
Rough month for North Carolina Republicans, but early July updates suggest they’re inching back to gains. Democrats gained 2,206 net on the active roll, but have still fallen far behind where they were in the November 2024 election, when Trump won by 3.2%.
With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina the most likely to flip to Democrats in 2026, with Michael Whatley the Republican nominee.
Races to watch: NC-1 (leaner), U.S. Senate
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Net Shift Since June: No Update
New Hampshire releases quarterly updates, and no update is due until August.
The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election.
Races to watch: NH-1 (leaner), U.S. Senate
ARIZONA
Net Shift Since June: No Update
I can view registrations change weekly in Pima County and around-the-clock in Maricopa County, but am now shifting this model to update on official Secretary of State releases, which come quarterly. This is to ensure the whole picture is painted, rather than having you see it through glimpses - which can either be overly encouraging or discouraging in these incomplete blips. I had expected Secretary of State Fontes to publish party registration figures by now, but will have to wait until August to analyze them in this monthly release.
Democrats have been making up significant ground in Maricopa County with primaries around the corner (July 21), but I suspect that is the why here - not a long-term reversal of electoral trend. Arizona’s statewide offices are up for grabs this year, and the Democrats have a real shot at flipping the legislature for the first time since the 1960s, so the battle for voter registration looms large.
Races to watch: AZ-1 (decisive), AZ-6 (decisive), all statewide offices
NEVADA
Net Shift Since June: D+4,111
Democrats have narrowly flipped the party registration lead back from Republicans in what has been a back-and-forth power grab multiple times since the 2024 election. Republicans actually had a nice month, but Clark County carried Democrats to a net pickup of 4,111. The state sits a half-point right of its registration index from when Trump carried the state by 3.1%.
Races to watch: NV-3 (leaner), all statewide offices
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Captain K’s Corner is a Polymarket partner newsletter.
This is why Republicans cannot get lazy and cannot tolerate RINO sleepwalking. Registration numbers are a battlefield report, not a victory parade. Florida shows what happens when a state goes hard red and stays organized. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire are where the war gets decided. Democrats are bleeding in some places, surging around primaries in others, and still capable of weaponizing urban machines, independents, and ballot fog. The answer is not panic. It is registration, precinct work, clean rolls, voter ID, proof of citizenship, hard deadlines, same-day voting, and relentless MAGA candidate recruitment. The registration battlefield rewards the side that acts early. Stop chasing polls. Build the electorate.
As a long time America 🇺🇸 First voter, I have a problem I hope you can help me with. I live in California in a deep blue district where no GOP candidate has any chance to win. Any $ I might donate to such a candidate would go straight down the drain. Although I will contribute to the candidacy of Steve Hilton, I doubt that he can win. Still, I am in a position to contribute to MAGA candidates in other states where it might make a difference.
I completely agree with your contention that the GOP should not waste financial or other resources on races that cannot be won and that it should concentrate its efforts on critical races that can be won.
Accordingly, I need to identify those candidates, anywhere in the country, where my contributions are most critical and will make the most difference in the effort to preserve or even advance the MAGA agenda in either the House or the Senate.
In short who are the candidates in the most strategically important races that can be won?
One last quick question that I imagine others may have as well. I am constantly bombarded with huge match offers. Are these worth supporting or do they merely spread $$ around among losing causes?