Kirk’s Martyrdom Created a Political Earthquake and Now I Have Numbers to Prove It

The first full week since the most shocking political assassination in six decades reveals which party Americans now associate with political violence. Stop believing media lies and trust the data.

What I have to report today is nothing short of astounding now that we’ve reached the second full week since the death of Charlie Kirk. I have suspected what I’m writing today would come to pass since that terrible day, and still feel some degree of hesitation in jumping into analytics. On September 11, one day after the assassination, I was Sean Spicer’s guest on The Sean Spicer Show. I called Sean right before we recorded to make sure nothing we had to say was opportunistic or gave even remotely the impression that anyone was eager to reap political gain over such a gruesome act. Here is what I had to say:

Of course this is gonna manifest in the political climate, but people are awake. The moderate person who wishes to go along to get along with people who have murder on the mind (is) no longer “head buried in the sand.”

As my long-time readers know, I measure and analyze voter registration by party shifting, which is the most accurate indicator of the trajectory of the next presidential election and impacts all races, each subject to political dynamics, down-ballot and in between said elections (such as midterms). I recommend you read the most recent update for September, posted mere days before Charlie’s death:

The Republican Party, in 28 of 29 states registering voters by party that have reported updates since the November election, has gained (either added to the lead or reduced the Democrat lead) net registrations on the Democrats. The statistics underscore a movement away from the Democrat Party, and in most of these states, also toward the GOP. And all of this was before the events of September 10, 2025.

Of the seven states I track in my battlegrounds register, New Hampshire updates quarterly, Florida intermittently throughout the month, and Iowa and Nevada monthly. Florida, throughout September, has continued on with a Republican registration surge, but three states- Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania – offer me a glimpse into what the political world is morphing into after Kirk’s death and the left’s Super Bowl Parade-style celebrating in every possible venue they can find. Now that America witnessed yesterday’s ceremony, and the echoing message was “continue the fight,” I will share these shocking developments with you.

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ARIZONA

I can only access Maricopa and Pima Counties, which account for over three-quarters of the statewide vote collectively, throughout the month. Maricopa (metro Phoenix) updates many times during the day, and Pima updates once per week. Here are the figures from the start-of-month update:

Here are the shifts in both counties over the last four monthly updates (post-maintenance):

Last four shifts
May to June: Maricopa R+243/Pima R+219 (total R+462)

June to July: Maricopa R+640/Pima D+166 (total R+474)

July to August: Maricopa R+286/Pima D+78 (total R+208)

August to September: Maricopa D+220/Pima D+37 (total D+257)

This morning, September 22, 2025, the counties sit as follows: