September 2025 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds
My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.
Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this recurring study, please see the March summary.
Last month’s report can be found here.
FLORIDA
Net shift since August: R+27,587
Last month, I said Florida’s GOP voter registration advantage may hit R+10% by the end of the year. It actually happened by the end of August, aided largely by a voter roll dump in Palm Beach County that (shocker) hurt the Democrats incredibly (-12,166 net).
Duval County is the most important county to watch because it mirrors Georgia for the past two decades. It has nudged rightward once again (GOP +144 net).
Florida is no longer a battleground state in federal or state elections and looks to add GOP U.S. House seats with redistricting prior to 2026; however, Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both.
IOWA
Net shift since August: R+710
August’s GOP gains are nearly identical to July’s, with Republicans adding registrations while Democrats continue to plummet.
Iowa’s continued GOP lean portends good outcomes for Wisconsin, which trends with Iowa.
With Joni Ernst rumored to be retiring from the U.S. Senate, there should be no trouble for Republicans in holding her seat; however, two critical U.S. House seats must be defended in very swingy territory (IA-1 and IA-3).
PENNSYLVANIA
Net shift since August: R+53
I track the total voter roll in Pennsylvania so I can get continuity going back two decades. August shows a stalemate, with Republicans picking up 53 registrations net in the full roll.
The key takeaway from August’s data is that Democrats hold a lead of just +53,629 active registrations, or D+0.6%. This figure is 5,506 right of where it was one month ago. In other words, Pennsylvania will be dead even or slightly Republican before midterms if this pace continues.
The key blue collar bellwethers, Erie and Northampton Counties, continue on a Republican trajectory after having been won by Trump in 2024.
Michigan (which does not register voters by party) mirrors Pennsylvania for the past 8 decades and is certainly on the same trajectory as found here.
NORTH CAROLINA
Net shift since August: R+2,220
While Republicans already lead the state in active registrations, the overall voter roll continues to drift rightward to a dead tie. Democrats are losing over 2,000 net registrations per month on a consistent basis, even though Mecklenburg and Wake Counties begin to gradually rebuild registration losses seen since the November election.
The presidency will be increasingly difficult to wrest from Republicans in North Carolina, but they are not out of the woods for down-ballot races, such as the important U.S. Senate race next year in which former Governor Roy Cooper is likely to be the Democrat nominee.
The next GOP presidential candidate, if these trends persist, should carry North Carolina by 5 or more points. The nominee is very likely to be J.D. Vance.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Net shift since August: New Hampshire updates quarterly. No change since last report.
ARIZONA
Net shift since August: D+157
The only state within the sample of battlegrounds to favor Democrats for August shifts; however, this is very much a technicality of statistical noise, given that only Pima and Maricopa Counties afford me the ability to observe changes frequently (Pima once per week, Maricopa around the clock). It is a near certainty the other 13 counties, if an update were available, would have pushed the overall registration substantially more Republican.
One of my most important articles from August details just how much more Republican Arizona has become by party registration since the corrupt 2022 election that elevated Katie Hobbs to the governorship. I find it unlikely she will be reelected as a result.
NEVADA
Net shift since August: R+10
With voter registration maintenance in rural counties potentially finished, there is good news for Republicans in Nevada. They posted the first monthly pickup of registrations since April, with a net gain of 10 (yes, ten).
The GOP went backward in Clark and Washoe collectively by a net of -243, which means the outlying counties pushed a net of 253 toward the GOP.
Significant GOP investment pursuing the minority working-class of Clark County would solidify Nevada in all statewide elections, in addition to a major executive action striking down Universal Mail Voting.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Thanks for the update Captain K. Always nice to see Miami-Dade keep inching into the Red.
I love living in the big beautiful red state of Florida after living in nightmarish Maryland.