Kirk’s Martyrdom Created a Political Earthquake and Now I Have Numbers to Prove It

The first full week since the most shocking political assassination in six decades reveals which party Americans now associate with political violence. Stop believing media lies and trust the data.

What I have to report today is nothing short of astounding now that we’ve reached the second full week since the death of Charlie Kirk. I have suspected what I’m writing today would come to pass since that terrible day, and still feel some degree of hesitation in jumping into analytics. On September 11, one day after the assassination, I was Sean Spicer’s guest on The Sean Spicer Show. I called Sean right before we recorded to make sure nothing we had to say was opportunistic or gave even remotely the impression that anyone was eager to reap political gain over such a gruesome act. Here is what I had to say:

Of course this is gonna manifest in the political climate, but people are awake. The moderate person who wishes to go along to get along with people who have murder on the mind (is) no longer “head buried in the sand.”

As my long-time readers know, I measure and analyze voter registration by party shifting, which is the most accurate indicator of the trajectory of the next presidential election and impacts all races, each subject to political dynamics, down-ballot and in between said elections (such as midterms). I recommend you read the most recent update for September, posted mere days before Charlie’s death:

The Republican Party, in 28 of 29 states registering voters by party that have reported updates since the November election, has gained (either added to the lead or reduced the Democrat lead) net registrations on the Democrats. The statistics underscore a movement away from the Democrat Party, and in most of these states, also toward the GOP. And all of this was before the events of September 10, 2025.

Of the seven states I track in my battlegrounds register, New Hampshire updates quarterly, Florida intermittently throughout the month, and Iowa and Nevada monthly. Florida, throughout September, has continued on with a Republican registration surge, but three states- Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania – offer me a glimpse into what the political world is morphing into after Kirk’s death and the left’s Super Bowl Parade-style celebrating in every possible venue they can find. Now that America witnessed yesterday’s ceremony, and the echoing message was “continue the fight,” I will share these shocking developments with you.

---

ARIZONA

I can only access Maricopa and Pima Counties, which account for over three-quarters of the statewide vote collectively, throughout the month. Maricopa (metro Phoenix) updates many times during the day, and Pima updates once per week. Here are the figures from the start-of-month update:

Here are the shifts in both counties over the last four monthly updates (post-maintenance):

Last four shifts
May to June: Maricopa R+243/Pima R+219 (total R+462)

June to July: Maricopa R+640/Pima D+166 (total R+474)

July to August: Maricopa R+286/Pima D+78 (total R+208)

August to September: Maricopa D+220/Pima D+37 (total D+257)

This morning, September 22, 2025, the counties sit as follows:

Maricopa: R+195,312 (R+1,627 since beginning of September)

Pima: D+54,384 (R+305 since beginning of September)

Net R shift in two counties: R+1,932 since beginning of September

The shift in Maricopa plus Pima, in three weeks (with almost all of this change coming since September 10), is 4.1 times greater than the largest month-long shift (June to July) since voter roll maintenance concluded. The other 13 counties, which make up less than a quarter of the vote, have most certainly produced a net pickup of thousands I will not be able to discover until the next Secretary of State update.

---

NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina updates its voter registration files once per week, and as you may know, is consistently heading in a Republican direction. Here is how the state looked at the beginning of the month:

Here are the statewide shifts over the past four months:

Last four shifts
May to June: R+2,541

June to July: R+2,074

July to August: R+2,008

August to September: R+2,220

A very steady drift, averaging 2,211 per month toward the GOP over the past four months, is evident as a Sun Belt state realigns from an ancestral Democrat advantage to what is nearly a clear Republican advantage (and is in the active voter roll already).

The state’s latest update, posted Saturday, shows the following party registration edge:

North Carolina: D+11,090

Net shift: R+4,067 since beginning of September

What makes these numbers even more mind-boggling is that the state issued an update on September 9, showing a lead of D+13,704 the day before Kirk was killed. That means, in just 11 days, North Carolina has moved more to the right than it has in any of the past four months. The change between the updates posted on September 13 and September 20 was an astonishing 1,699, as I posted here on Substack Notes:

---

PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania updates its voter registration files every Monday. I went for my morning walk waiting for it to post before deciphering it, allowing me to put a punctuation mark on this release. Pennsylvania has been marching steadily Republican for years by registration, drawing nearly dead even in active registrations and within two points on the full roll since the November election. Here is where I had the state at the beginning of the month:

The registration numbers continue to inch toward the GOP on the full roll, which I track for continuity so I can analyze many election cycles in reverse, and at a faster rate for party switchers and active registrations. Here are the shifts in the full roll for the past four months:

Last four shifts
May to June: D+682

June to July: R+2,923

July to August: R+569

August to September: R+53

Excluding the one strong June to July shift, things have been at a standstill since voter registration maintenance concluded. That is most certainly not the case anymore. Today’s Secretary of State update shows the following party registration advantage statewide:

Pennsylvania: D+169,223

This makes for a shift of 5,447 toward the GOP in the first three weeks of the month. The shift since the last update on September 15 was a massive 2,832 net toward the GOP, encompassing the first full week since Kirk was killed and nearly equaling the entire gain from June to July.

Pennsylvania also gives me a treasure trove of data, such as party switchers (Democrats switching to Republican or vice versa), which the GOP almost always leads at a rate of less than 2 to 1. Last week, 1,756 Democrats switched to Republican, and only 509 the other way around, a rate of nearly 3.5 to 1 in favor of the GOP. The switch rate for the full year is 1.8 to 1 in favor of the GOP.

---

Conclusion

I still feel sick about pondering political gain made at the loss of someone so important who meant so much to so many people; still, my role in the information war is to give people actionable information that pushes against the lies they are fed by mainstream media. In less than two weeks, a political earthquake is evident, and it is clear from just a sample of these three states that Americans are now associating the Democrat Party with political violence, just as their left-wing counterparts have required violence throughout world history to push an agenda people eventually wish they’d have never had foisted upon them. Expect these numbers to accelerate as more people figure out who Charlie Kirk really was.

---

Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.