Let the MSM Hedging Begin on the 2026 Midterms
Media slowly adjust expectations and point viewers right where I’ve pointed them for over a year
I’d like to open the week with a little bit of a “humblebrag.” On Friday afternoon, I received a package from the White House. Inside I found a copy of my book, The American War on Election Corruption, signed by President Trump along with this wonderful letter:
I had dropped the copy off with one of the President’s aides after I saw him (President Trump) in Florida in May, and I’m very pleased to have received it back with such a nice note that will be passed down someday to my children.
Since the President’s address on election interference Thursday, that book has surged again. Please consider getting a copy of it for yourself, your family, your friends, or your local elected officials:
I didn’t step up for accolades or recognition, however. I jumped into the fray in 2020 because I knew our elections were in a state of despair significant enough to jeopardize our entire national future. I have continued to wield a heavy hammer on elections in the years since, and still get flak from the corruption enablers in the media. Democracy Docket has a particular axe to grind with me:
“All hell is going to break loose with the president’s address Thursday on election interference,” Seth Keshel, a leading anti-voting activist, wrote on social media. “It will compel action and make the pressure to pass the SAVE America Act overwhelming and will mandate change at the highest levels,” Keshel added.
If Marc Elias still thinks I’m worth crapping on, I suppose there’s still gas left in my tank for decrying electile dysfunction, and I remain a worthy adversary of those who wish to subjugate us through the corruption of the voting process. I have remained on point, rarely straying from what I know best. Because we suffered under the rule of Joseph R. Biden, Jr., for four years and are currently swimming upstream against the Murkowskis of the world and never-ending Democrat lawfare, the repairs to our electoral system are taking a long time; long enough, in fact, that the most critical ones are at risk of not happening under the Trump 47 administration.
This means that all of my electoral assessments are made with the corruption of elections accounted for. Remember, the laws of the various states dictate what types of ballot counts and, by extension, candidate performances are possible. I can feel good about Iowa with its strong voting laws in the same election cycle I feel bad about Washington, with its ballot collection free-for-all that is certain to impact the WA-3 decisive seat the GOP candidate is polling well in.
I’ve been directing traffic on the 2026 midterms since the infant days of the Trump 47 administration, which terrifyingly is already three-eighths of the way to completion:
The "Way Too Early" Guide to the 2026 House and Senate Midterms
Believe it or not, I am already taking on questions regarding the next two election cycles. I have come to realize that election season is an enduring thing that never really ends, kind of like how the NFL season proliferates itself through the calendar in unique ways:
I’ve had to make some changes to the electoral math because of the various redistricting changes impacting 10 states:
AL, CA, FL, LA, MO, NC, OH, TN, TX, UT
My assessment for those, cumulatively, goes as follows:
+12 GOP
+5 DEM
3 toss-ups
That makes +7 net for the GOP, pending the outcomes of CA-48, FL-25, and TX-34. It’s safe to say, thanks to the scrapping of the Virginia quasi referendum, that the GOP won the redistricting war - but we all know legislatures in Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina didn’t go far enough or we’d probably already have this year’s race in the bag.
On that note, the winds are blowing early. Normally we don’t get hedging until after Labor Day. I’m referring to the period in which media blowhards come up with something like, “It looks like voters are coming home and sticking with the GOP after all, and perhaps Wyoming isn’t due for a blue tidal wave after all.”
MSM reporters are starting to follow suit as the so-called “generic ballot” tightens:
Right now, the generic ballot sits at D+4.7% (meaning Democrats turn out at a rate 4.7% greater than Republicans):
However, factoring in just the last six polls, all within four points, we see D+3.0%. Like our presidential races, Democrats being packed into blowout districts requires them to find the widespread appeal they lack in order to win the decisive seats. We have never held a midterm under the current boundaries in what is the most tightly gerrymandered national map ever produced, so no one really has any idea how big the Democrats would need to win the House popular vote to pull a bare majority (218 seats). Most people, like Cillizza above, are thinking 3-4 points at minimum. Makes a lot of sense when you look at the reality of it all:
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