Most readers of Captain K’s Corner know that I am married to State Representative Rachel Keshel, who represents Arizona’s 17th Legislative District. I gave an overview of her campaign on Saturday, August 1, and readers responded with a very strong fundraising drive:
One Last Run
Over the past three years, I’ve had a front row seat to the daily ins and outs of the Arizona legislature under a Democrat governor who won’t sign any meaningful legislation. That GOP majority, as frustrating as it can be sometimes, is all that stands between an Arizona promising to turn into the next Florida (given enough time) and an Arizona threaten…
It was badly needed, because the Democrats smell blood in the water and are looking to flip both the House and Senate chambers by running right through LD-17. The district looks good on paper, but runs far to the left of party registration because of a few key spots in the district loaded with voters who represent a brand of Republican voter at odds with the grassroots brand - which Rachel comes from, and which President Trump most definitely comes from. To top it off, Arizona is one of a few states that has two representatives per district, meaning it’s difficult to throw a punch without messing up the ranking of candidates and thereby imperiling your own election (or that of your running mate). All the candidates run in the same field of four, and not in separate races for Seat A or Seat B.
Rachel and her old seatmate, Cory McGarr, won in the 2022 election alongside the Katie Hobbs gubernatorial rig-job, by beating two Democrat newcomers in what was then a freshly drawn district:
McGarr was a great legislator, and both GOP candidates ran for reelection in 2024. Enter what is known as a single shot - when the underdog party runs one candidate. This concentrates all the Democrat vote on one guy (or gal), and any independents looking to split a ticket have just one choice of Democrat. It works in reverse for Republicans in blue-leaning districts, and that is exactly how Michelle Pena got elected in LD-23. Unfortunately, Gary Garcia Snyder refuses to drop his candidacy alongside her in LD-23 this year and will almost certainly cost Republicans Pena’s seat, and potentially the majority.
In 2024, Democrats single shotted a candidate named Kevin Volk, whose family is well-known in the Tucson business community, and the results came out like this:
Volk elected, Rachel reelected, and McGarr on the outside looking in. LD-17 was the only district out of 30 statewide in which President Trump ran left of his 2020 numbers (in a state that had a terrible 2020 election, mind you); the Arizona GOP expanded its majorities in both the State Senate and State House nevertheless. Volk has a problem this year:
He is joined on the ticket by Holly Lyon, a retired Air Force officer who has run for the legislature before, albeit in a much redder district than LD-17. She ran slightly ahead of Volk in the primary, which doesn’t predict much because it will come down to how many Republicans run left of normal, and how non-partisans in a few key precincts split tickets. Rachel ran behind McGarr substantially in the 2024 primaries because another female Republican mounted a primary challenge, and the results shook out differently with a full electorate in November.
So - no more single shot. There will be no more sole concentration of all Democrat votes on one candidate, with no capacity to receive all independent votes looking for a split ticket to one Democrat. Democrats got greedy in LD-4 after a successful single shot in 2022, and the GOP took both seats in 2024 in the most dangerous electoral turf that suburbia has to offer in Maricopa County:
With the single shot off the table, and from feedback from the cigar room, the consensus is that Republicans are likely to win both House seats in LD-17 this year, despite Hobbs appearing to be on her way to reelection and the standard winds of a midterm environment. Rachel’s running mate this time is John Winchester, born and raised in Tucson and someone deeply connected to institutions and organizations. We didn’t know what to think of Winchester when he announced for the race, but we’ve come to like him and believe that he, a traditional conservative, and Rachel, the populist firebrand, make a strong pair that thoroughly represents the range of modern Republican politics that should go on to serve in Phoenix together.
Now, let me show you, with greatly enhanced odds of a double GOP victory in LD-17 on the table from two years ago, what the corrupt system is doing to game this race:
Powerful lobbies indeed - organizations from Phoenix and throughout the state - are looking to throw Rachel overboard and promote a purple ticket to persuade voters to elect a Winchester/Volk ticket. Let it be known before I move the balance of this article for paid subscribers - Rachel has already gone to Winchester with this, and he said, “I don’t want my face on anything with Volk’s.” We are at peace with whatever happens in November, but would at least appreciate a straight shot without having to wade through political minefields laid by special interests.
This level of outside support in our elections, despite its aims, has unpredictable impact. It could do what it intends and force a split ticket aiding Winchester and saving Volk, or it could backfire and piss off the substantial grassroots base of LD-17 - forcing members to single shot in favor of Rachel - which we do not want because the goal is to win both seats.
Detailing the Outside Impact on the LD-17 Race and Why Voters Hate It
Let me connect the dots and expand on how our elections are rigged to benefit the few: