No One is Willing to Speak the Truth About the NYC Mayor’s Race, So I Will

Consultants, media, pollsters, and giant egos are getting in the way of the only way available to prevent a Mayor Mamdani, even if the best long-term play is to put him in office.

A major reason I resent the obsession over political ideology is on full display with the approaching New York City Mayor’s race, which is a four-way affair between Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams, and Curtis Sliwa. All four are notable in their own ways:

· Mamdani is to the left of Stalin and will send North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida into inconceivable levels of congestion if elected

· Cuomo is the former governor of New York and just in the past five years has overseen one dumpster fire after another, including his own resignation

· Adams is the current New York City mayor who is so despised by his own insane political party he couldn’t even win its nomination to run for reelection

· Sliwa is the Republican that got pounded by almost 40 points in the last race

I prefer to tell it like it is, rather than coming into your inbox to tell you things we all wish we could hear. I’d love to be able to say New York City is headed for a Miami-like transformation in which hundreds of thousands of Noo Yawkahs finally get sick of electing crooks and put in a change agent; however, my ideology is pragmatism, not conservatism, and I examine the world as it is, not the way I wish it were.

Sliwa and Adams aren’t electable. Yes, I hear you reminding me that Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg both ran as Republicans and got elected. Rudy was a tough-on-crime candidate who first got into office thirty years ago, a year before New York also ousted its Democrat governor, who happened to be Andrew Cuomo’s old man. Bloomberg was and is a shape-shifting technocrat who used his fortune to slither into office, and years later, run for President as a Democrat. Adams, on the other hand, has been mired in public corruption, makes too many common-sense statements for the Democrat base to get behind, and won’t be able to compete with Cuomo for anti-Mamdani votes to win the race, no matter what his campaign says.

Speaking of remaining votes:

The Hill/Emerson pushed a poll out yesterday showing Mamdani up 15 points. If you’ve been here for a while, you know polling doesn’t do much for me, especially when I have other means of figuring out how a race is looking. I am confident this poll paints a correct picture, that Mamdani has a comfortable lead short of a majority, with his competitors splitting the votes needed to beat his total. The November 4 election will not use Ranked Choice Voting, so Mamdani can weasel into office with a plurality as long as the field stays intact. Do you notice anything else about the poll results?

Cuomo 28 + Sliwa 10 + Adams 8 equals 46.

The Hill/Emerson believes Mamdani’s three opponents have more combined support than he does. This has been a steady theme in recent polling, making me believe this poll is mostly correct. So, what the hell is going on?

· People are insincere. They cry and scream about Mamdani, but then wish upon a star for a political savior to enter the race. I’m sure Sliwa is a great guy and a lot of people I respect tremendously have a lot of respect for him, but come on. Here is how New York City, even with a major Trump shift, voted in 2024 for President:

·Consultants have nothing to gain when their candidate folds, so anyone claiming on one hand that Mamdani will ruin New York City forever while not advising a candidate incapable of winning to drop out is part of the fear grifting.

· Egos. Only one of Mamdani’s opponents could feasibly become mayor at this point, but no one wants to form a coalition.

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the Mamdani will destroy New York theatrics are phony. I did some napkin math on Cuomo’s chances to win back in June, only to withdraw it immediately because Cuomo announced he wouldn’t run as an independent. Now I can dust it off again, because Cuomo is the only prayer New Yorkers have of avoiding Mamdani.

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Am I Pulling for Cuomo?

It’s not about pulling for anyone. I assemble accurate forecasts because it is what I’ve done my entire career dating back to my time as an intelligence officer in the Army. I’ve recently learned I made gamblers a ton of money last fall pegging real presidential results as fraudulent polls were all over the place (still waiting on my commissions, winners). It doesn’t matter what I think of Andrew Cuomo, but he is the only candidate who can defeat Mamdani, and doing so will require Sliwa and Adams to drop out of the race, endorse Cuomo, and work to form a voting coalition to win the race. I wouldn’t be surprised, if that were to happen, to see Cuomo take a majority of the vote as New Yorkers feel there is a strong chance to have an alternate candidate.