November 2025 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds
My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.
Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this recurring study, please see the March summary.
Last month’s report can be found here. These figures are still the most predictive of any for presidential elections and the overall political trajectory of the country despite any recent off-year election results subject to lower turnout and political dynamics stretching back decades.
FLORIDA
Net shift since October: R+21,646
Another month, another big leap in GOP gains that appear poised to continue indefinitely based on Democrat wins in New York City and New Jersey, which will create a political refugee wave.
Duval County has shifted to within a single point for the fading Democrat registration advantage, which suggests Georgia is also getting redder.
Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both.
IOWA
Net shift since October: R+1,059
Iowa had another stronger push in October, reaching R+11.0% in overall registration.
Iowa is more than 23,000 registrations redder than it was when Trump won the state by over 13 points in 2024. Minnesota and Wisconsin, which don’t register by party, typically shift with Iowa.
PENNSYLVANIA
Net shift since October: D+2,118
The only state in this selection favoring Democrats for October; Pennsylvania’s move left was driven by the major urban counties, particularly Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties, in registration drives for their municipal and judicial elections.
Despite a temporary shift left statewide, bellwethers Northampton and Erie Counties continue to show the same rightward lean - a positive sign the state’s long-term trajectory continues to favor the Trump coalition. John Fetterman’s public statements seemingly reflect this sentiment.
Michigan (which does not register voters by party) mirrors Pennsylvania for the past 8 decades and is certainly on the same trajectory as found here.
NORTH CAROLINA
Net shift since October: R+3,853
North Carolina’s unstoppable tide toward Republicans continued in October, and may result in an overall flip in statewide registration by the end of the year given the current pace of change.
With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. Both Wake and Mecklenburg Counties slightly favored Republicans last month in their shifts.
The next GOP presidential candidate, if these trends persist, should carry North Carolina by 5 or more points.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Net shift since October: R+301
New Hampshire’s quarterly update once again showed significant cuts to the voter roll, diminishing the membership of both parties.
Democrats were hit hardest, resulting in a slight pickup from Republicans, who are closing in on a 50,000-registration lead, up substantially from 2024. This makes the state the most likely of any to flip away from Democrats in the 2028 presidential election and helps GOP chances of 2026 midterm success.
ARIZONA
Net shift since October: R+3,399
I have been tracking Maricopa and Pima Counties outside the periodic Secretary of State updates because they update frequently.
The Secretary of State posted updates from all counties in October, which contributed to the heavy Republican shift since the last report. Arizona Republicans have more than doubled their lead since the 2022 midterm debacle in the state. With the right governor, they could chart a course like Florida’s and establish a new western GOP stronghold.
NEVADA
Net shift since October: R+895
With voter roll maintenance seemingly concluded in the deep red rurals, Republicans expanded their lead in October.
Nevada has voted to the right of its party registration for the past four presidential elections; last month, the GOP made small gains in Clark (metro Las Vegas) and Washoe (metro Reno) Counties, which were the only two counties Harris won in the 2024 election.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
This is all VERY good news!
Keep up the Superb work, Captain!!