October 2025 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds
My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.
Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this recurring study, please see the March summary.
Last month’s report can be found here.
FLORIDA
Net shift since September: R+24,461
Florida had another huge month for GOP gains, with a large party gain pushing the Republicans past a net gain of a quarter-million since the 2024 election.
The Democrat registration advantage in Duval County dwindled by 1,846 after registration maintenance. If Duval County continues to shift toward even it is a good sign Georgia is also getting redder.
Florida is no longer a battleground state in federal or state elections and looks to add GOP U.S. House seats with redistricting prior to 2026; however, Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both.
IOWA
Net shift since September: R+1,687
September’s GOP gains are much stronger than the usual monthly pickups, most likely due to voter sentiment after the Charlie Kirk shooting.
Iowa is nearly 22,000 registrations redder than it was when Trump won the state by over 13 points in 2024. Minnesota and Wisconsin, which don’t register by party, typically shift with Iowa.
PENNSYLVANIA
Net shift since September: R+6,180
I track the total voter roll in Pennsylvania so I can get continuity going back two decades. September’s GOP gains are enormous, with a net shift of +6,180 for the month, with rapidly accelerating change after Kirk’s killing.
65 of 67 counties have shifted Republican (more Republican or less Democrat) since the 2024 election; Chester and Delaware are at the same marks and may begin to nudge left from here based on current traction.
The key blue collar bellwethers, Erie and Northampton Counties, continue on a Republican trajectory after having been won by Trump in 2024. Erie has moved from D+4.9% to D+3.2%, and Northampton from D+5.0% to D+2.6%.
Michigan (which does not register voters by party) mirrors Pennsylvania for the past 8 decades and is certainly on the same trajectory as found here.
NORTH CAROLINA
Net shift since September: R+5,189
In keeping with a nationwide pattern, North Carolina shifted heavily Republican in September at a rate far surpassing previous months.
With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. Wake County ticked rightward last month after a summer of Democrat gains, but Mecklenburg County continues to regrow its Democrat advantage that has been lost after voter roll maintenance.
The next GOP presidential candidate, if these trends persist, should carry North Carolina by 5 or more points.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Net shift since September: New Hampshire updates quarterly. No change since last report. Expect new analysis in next month’s update.
ARIZONA
Net shift since September: R+2,476
I have been tracking Maricopa and Pima Counties outside the periodic Secretary of State updates because they update frequently. I also discovered how to access occasional updates from Pinal County, and have revised my figures accordingly in this release.
GOP registration numbers predictably went through the roof in Maricopa County after hometown hero Charlie Kirk was shot last month, wiping out modest Democrat net gains from August.
One of my most important articles from August details just how much more Republican Arizona has become by party registration since the corrupt 2022 election that elevated Katie Hobbs to the governorship. I find it unlikely she will be reelected as a result.
NEVADA
Net shift since September: R+6,049
Massive Republican shift in Nevada for September, taking into account voter sentiment and a large maintenance effort in Clark County.
Republicans regain the voter registration edge in a state that has voted to the right of its party registration for the past four presidential elections.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
This registration data is encouraging, but none of these positive R numbers are beyond the D cheat factor with fraudulent mail in ballots. Until we have clean voter rolls, ID that indicates the voter is a US citizen and in-person voting (except for rare circumstances), the fraud will continue in grand style, unfortunately. Thank you, Seth, for all your great work.
This red trend gives me hope that as time goes on, more and more people are waking up.