NYT Calls to Concede + Captain K’s Forthcoming Book

The latest updates confirming you’ve been reading “signal” over here, and not noise - plus what lies ahead

Ty Cobb is one of my all-time favorite baseball legends, and he also has one of the great quotes ever uttered:

I had to fight all my life to survive. They were all against me, but I beat the bastards and left them in the ditch.

Last fall, I was the recipient of my very own hit piece in The New York Times, which ran on the print cover of the business section shortly after online publication and targeted me because I remain the only forecaster out there in a world of poll readers who combines traditional polling analytics with my own studied understanding of the potential for ballot fraud county-by-county, hinging on which laws states have on the books.

Once the dust settled, I called all 56 races (50 states, Washington, D.C., and five split electoral votes of Maine and Nebraska) right on the money. That led to this hilarious Ben Garrison cartoon, which I will sign and ship to you if you donate 2 subscriptions:

I was so confident in my projections I agreed to meet with their local contract photographer at the Arizona Capitol complex for photos. As for the Times - I have a good, respectful relationship with Robert Draper, and I didn’t mind the interview process with Stuart Thompson, who wrote the article. I consider the “hit piece” narrative in good nature and appreciated their approach to the piece more than I have some of the other nasty hit pieces I’ve received. It is from some of the people who commented for their article I’ve never heard from again, like Logan Phillips:

If he ends up getting some things right, I think it’s going to be out of luck.

Well, get me a lottery ticket and a taxi to the casino, Logan. The Captain is coming to play.

You may be wondering why I’m drumming up the Times again. It turns out this week they quietly confirmed exactly what it is I’ve been telling the world for years now - that voter registration by party paints the picture for the electoral landscape of the United States, and always has. Shane Goldmacher had the arduous task of delivering what you’ve been reading here on a steady basis to “educated” coastal consumers still subscribing to legacy media, and their readership beyond the seas.

A comment from the piece by Michael Pruser, one of the fairer voices not aligned with the American right, and one capable of reading the tea leaves:

“I don’t want to say, ‘The death cycle of the Democratic Party,’ but there seems to be no end to this,” said Michael Pruser, who tracks voter registration closely as the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, an election-analysis site. “There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill. This is month after month, year after year.”

In recent months, Speaker Newt Gingrich has referred to me on several news shows and newsletters as the leading expert on voter registration in America. That’s quite a lofty honor, and to corroborate the Times, yes, this is a dire emergency if you’re a Democrat. Republicans expanded their voter registration gains in the states tracking party data by another 21,160 last month. Connecticut is the only party registration state that hasn’t updated since November 2024, but in every other state except for Utah, thanks to recent roll maintenance in an overwhelmingly red state, the GOP has gained on Democrats or expanded existing leads. Here is my updated graphic:

More than a million registrations have shifted toward Republicans in just 30 states, and when California finally updates their figures, the bottom will drop out for Democrats worse than it already has. I recommend starting here to learn why voter registration by party, not polling, is the most important metric there is. Anyway, Times, nice to see you catch up. You could probably think of another piece giving credit where credit is due, and I’ve got a nice new blazer to model when you’re ready.

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Captain K to Author Book

In other huge news this past week, I agreed to terms to produce a full book for Post Hill Press, which is a well-known publisher of conservative authors. The working title is America’s Battle with Electile Dysfunction, and if things go according to plan, it should be out in mid-2026, ahead of the midterm elections.

I am already well into the drafting, and plan to present information and research in such a compelling way that we continue to move hearts and minds as the Overton Window remains open on election reform. Recent efforts by President Trump to oppose mail-in voting, and the orders and lawsuits to follow, all but ensure this will be a hot topic for some time. Key topics I plan to address:

• The development of an analytical mind

• How the military shaped “Captain K”

• Forecasting 2016 credentials

• 2020, as it unfolded

• The efforts to challenge the 2020 outcome, media crosshairs

• Beating the experts in 2024

• The future of election reform

I’m excited about this work, and assuming the manuscript is accepted, even more excited to continue taking the fight to the information space. We are winning, and soon this winning will spill over from hearts and minds and into the law.

In closing, thank you for continuing to support my newsletter, now one of the top-ranked U.S. Political newsletters on the American right worldwide. If you’re a free subscriber, please consider upgrading. The best deal is for a full year, and if you refer to the header of this email, you’ll find a deal expiring at the end of the month offering a discount on an annual subscription for first-timers. I don’t plan on offering another one until the holidays.

Keep up the good fight. We are going to win it as long as we don’t lose heart.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.