One Year Ago: The Gray Lady Takes Her Shot
“If he ends up getting some things right, I think it’s going to be out of luck.”
On October 15, 2024, The New York Times published an article titled, “Meet the Election Denier Forecasting the 2024 Race,” which was a feature story focused on the work of yours truly. The piece ran a week later on the print cover of the business section, which I’ve never been able to secure a copy of to frame in my office. Solid villain cover photo taken in front of the Arizona Capitol, in my opinion:
Before I get further into the article, I’d like it to be understood that I like Stuart Thompson, the author, and we had a good time over several interviews that led to his look under my analytical hood. I doubt we agree on much politically, but I don’t think this article hits below the belt. When he emailed me asking if I’d be interested in explaining my methodology - the only widely known one blending traditional analytics with a proprietary (and controversial) system of estimating ballot stuffing in key counties and states - I recognized there was an inherent risk that I would look like a fool if the 2024 election ended up the same way the 2020 race did. The voice of Steve Cassell echoed inside - “heroes do hard things.” So we did the interviews.
A FEW OF MY FAVORITE THINGS
1) The Keystone
Fact Check:
I predicted Pennsylvania wouldn’t be able to replicate its 2020 cheat, primarily because Automatic Voter Registration didn’t get started until the end of 2023 when Josh Shapiro ordered it by fiat. Michigan, like Georgia, are pegged by the NYT as possible “losses,” primarily because I considered them possible steals thanks to the terrible election laws, like Automatic Voter Registration, and dominant, corrupt urban hubs. My final predictions had Trump carrying both. I was also one of the only voices out there suggesting New Hampshire would be close, and I was right.
2) Demographics Do Not Determine Destiny
Fact Check:
3) Tell Me More, Mr. Jain
Fact Check: Every state that had a Republican voter registration lean from the 2020 election moved to the right in the 2024 election. The only state with a Democrat registration lean from the 2020 election (Colorado at .05% left of 2020), moved 2.5% to the right, making it the only technical miss, and one that favored Trump. Voter registration by party remains the king of presidential forecasting. Ask Ann Selzer how going against the grain on it worked out for her career.
Captain K and Speaker Gingrich Retire Ann Selzer from Polling (Video)
In early November, Ann Selzer, Iowa’s once-respected pollster who called the state nearly right on the money in 2016 and 2020, indicated Kamala Harris was on pace to win the state by 3 points. Just about everyone knew this smelled like rotten seafood, given that both campaigns were all over Wisconsin, which sits well to the left of the Hawkeye State. …
4) Fortune Favors the Bold
Fact Check: Style points count
5) Get Me to the Casino
Fact Check: It turns out I managed to get all 56 races for electoral votes (50 states, Washington, D.C., and the five split electoral districts of Maine and Nebraska) correct, and with these margins for battlegrounds:
Arizona: Call Trump +4.7%, Actual Trump +5.5% (miss 0.8%)
Georgia: Call Trump +4.1%, Actual Trump +2.2% (miss 1.9%)
Michigan: Call Trump +2.5%, Actual Trump +1.4% (miss 1.1%)
Nevada: Call Trump +2.5%, Actual Trump +3.1% (miss 0.6%)
New Hampshire: Call Harris +1.3%, Actual Harris +2.8% (miss 1.5%)
North Carolina: Call Trump +5.1%, Actual Trump +3.2% (miss 1.9%)
Pennsylvania: Call Trump +2.8%, Actual Trump +1.7% (miss 1.1%)
Wisconsin: Call Trump +2.3%, Actual Trump +0.9% (miss 1.4%)
Calls: 8 of 8
Average Margin Miss: 1.3%
Vindicated: Captain K's 2024 Predictions Review
This post is for not only my supporters, but my haters, and also happens to be my first post since the great Donald Trump 2024 election victory. Now that all states (as well as separate electoral votes awarded by district) have been called, let it be known I was a perfect
I’ll be waiting for our trip to Vegas, Logan. Please note my margins would have been more accurate without Democrat “fortification of the swing states.”
Conclusion
Sorry guys, I had to bring this back up after the one-year publication anniversary. Stuart, if you want to do a piece on voter registration shifts since November, please let me know. To all the people who have found this newsletter since President Trump put it on blast last week, or from hearing Speaker Gingrich discuss the work on Fox News, thank you for your readership and support. My goal here is to provide you with the most actionable intelligence available and short circuit any efforts to obfuscate truth in our political discourse.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
I’ve been reminiscing lately about the state of the 2024 election at this very time a year ago, and I remembered your segments with Sean Spicer that made me feel like we might actually pull this election off and not repeat the 2020 steal. Thanks for the trip down memory lane.
Having put pollster Seltzer out of business, next please continue making the grey lady look like idiotic elitist imbeciles in service of putting NYT out of business, too. Between your humiliating them and DT’s $15 billion suit against them, let NYT join the NY Herald Tribune, the Daily Mirror, the NY World Telegram, and other yellow journalism outfits in the well-deserved dust of defaming dunderheads.