Opening the Archive: Ten Clear Signs Trump Should Win the 2024 Election
I value accountability, which the media despise and never intend to embrace in seeking to mislead every demographic group in America
Author’s Note: There are 6,743 more subscribers to Captain K’s Corner than there were one year ago, when this article was first published. It has remained reserved for paying subscribers, but today I’d like to open it up so you can see how these predictions panned out. They are extensively referenced in my forthcoming book, The American War on Election Corruption.
Once this week’s elections are behind us, we will set the countdown clock for one year until 2026 midterms. I’ll be getting back into predictions mode and will need to dust off the methodology to see how accurate I can be with more unpredictable races on the map.
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Intense exposure on several mainline right broadcasts, like appearances with Sean Spicer and Jesse Kelly, plus an interview on Dr. Steve Turley’s 1.2 million followers and counting YouTube channel, has brought many new followers here to this journal. In the event you’re one of those new followers, one reason you may not have heard of me until now is because I don’t come with much of a filter when it comes to discussing the state of elections in this country. I’m the guy that gets invited to headline a Lincoln-Reagan dinner, only for the legacy GOP bigwigs to opt for a date night with the missus or for the party to be pelted with shame letters written to the editor by old white liberals who are detached from the problems facing those who work for a living and wish to preserve something, anything, to hand to coming generations.
Captain K’s Corner is a reader-supported publication. My mission is truth and transparency in elections, and I have amassed four years’ worth of election research to do it. It has been made possible by my paying subscribers. If you find this work useful, please consider subscribing as a paying member.
You see, professional GOPers would rather dismiss the alarming problems with the 2020 and 2022 elections to curry favor with people who hate their guts anyway than to roll their sleeves up and get busy calling out the worst imaginable form of dehumanization - the stealing of one’s political voice. If you reach far enough back into the reaches of your memory, you’ll remember that George W. Bush was branded a “war criminal,” John McCain was racist for running against a black candidate, and Mitt Romney was a cold, hard-hearted uber-capitalist who wanted to starve minority children on the cold sidewalks. Now, all three of those Uniparty hacks are lionized by the current coalition and their media cohorts in a desperate effort to retain power.
Where am I going with this?
What I will tell you now, in the opening of this missive, is that if I had never heard of or experienced the 2020 election, I would bet everything I own, and everything my children own, on Donald Trump reaching and surpassing 270 electoral votes next week. Hell, I would even go take as many loans as I could get my hands on to bet it on a Trump victory. The data are extremely telling, as are all known historical indicators, that Trump is on his way to deliver perhaps the most convincing Republican electoral victory since 1988, and on his way to claiming the vaunted popular vote for the first time in two decades. The regime candidate, Kamala Harris, has one, maybe two things on her side that I will touch on later.
You may know that I love baseball, and that I got my start in analytics thanks to my involvement in the sport, starting in high school, continuing into college, and carrying over into my time in the Army when I would do freelance analytics for a few big leaguers. Let me introduce those of you who aren’t so familiar with baseball to Roger Maris:
Maris was a two-time American League Most Valuable player who starred for the Yankees in the 1960s alongside Mickey Mantle. Maris wound up hitting 61 home runs in 1961, beating Babe Ruth’s record of 60 set in 1927. Maris’s mark of 61 was entered into the record books, but with an asterisk because he did it in a 162-game regular season instead of 154 games, like Ruth did.
Years later, after Maris’s record had already been beaten by both Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds whopped 73 home runs in 2001. Bonds was widely suspected of steroid use, and due to this, his single season and career (762) home run records are viewed by fans with the dreaded asterisk.
Take all of my predictions, which will arrive in a flurry over the weekend and on Monday, with an asterisk. Unlike many mainstream prognosticators, I am not hedging. I have little interest in maintaining “street cred” so people listen to me in 2028. I am simply making predictions on the data that will serve as a marker in time as to exactly how the data look, and why a Trump victory is highly likely if and only if our elections are run with a modicum of security and voter confidence in the process.
I now present the top ten reasons Donald Trump is poised for victory this November:
I. Party Affiliation
30 of 31 states that register voters by party have become either more Republican or less Democrat than they were at the time of the 2020 election, with Colorado being the only state drifting left. Five of eight key battleground states are also substantially more Republican (or less Democrat) than they were in 2020 – Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Two peripheral states registering by party that can be used to peg battlegrounds that don’t are also much more Republican than they were in 2020 – Florida and Iowa. Pennsylvania is the most striking of all states with this metric, boasting 64 of 67 counties shifting Republican since 2020, with a net change to the voter roll favoring the GOP by more than 400,000.
Gallup also reports the best electoral environment for Republicans based on party affiliation since 2004.
II. Staggering Early Voting Data
I recently rendered my opinion as to why Donald Trump urged Republican voters to vote early and arrived at the conclusion that it is a battle for narrative more than voting math and reading tea leaves. In a normal cycle, the media would be parroting lines about how far Harris is ahead of Trump in the early vote, and spelling out massive Democrat firewalls he would need to overcome on Election Day to have a puncher’s chance. Right now, the GOP leads early voting in North Carolina outright, in Arizona by over 155,000 ballots, in Nevada by over 5%, and demographic figures in Georgia, which doesn’t register voters by party, suggest rural white counties are turning out in droves, while key urban strongholds filled with black voters are lagging and unlikely to match 2020 turnout on Election Day given their voting habits. In Pennsylvania, where Democrats always command a strong mail-in margin, returns are over 20% more favorable to the GOP than when an Irish Catholic that went by the moniker “Scranton Joe” squeaked past Donald Trump in the filthiest election of all-time by a measly 80,555 ballots.
Florida has R+11.7% turnout as of this morning, signaling a wipeout in the Sunshine State for Harris in the double digits, a margin not seen for either party since 1988 in a presidential election. That state has two key counties to watch…
III. The Duval Bellwether
Duval County, Florida, the home of metro Jacksonville, is the most important county to watch in the Sunshine State if we are looking to read tea leaves for a decisive electoral college state. It mirrors Georgia perfectly since 2004 and has almost identical racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic demographics. Duval has shifted 4 points to the right in its registration index (from D+5.9% in 2020 to D+1.9% today) and is currently turning out at R+3.5% as of the time of this writing.
The graphic below shows the correlation between the two and the likelihood that in flipping back Duval County, Trump will also flip back Georgia and carry its 16 crucial electoral votes, setting up Pennsylvania as the tipping point state.
IV. The Miami-Dade Bellwether
Miami-Dade County, which has a registration index of D+3.4%, is currently turning out at R+5.0% in total mail and in-person early voting. It is a near certainty that Donald Trump will carry Miami-Dade County for the first GOP presidential win there since 1988.
The GOP nominee for president has carried this county seven times – 1928, 1952, 1956, 1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988. In all seven of those elections, each nominee has won or retained the presidency.
V. New York’s Canary in the Coal Mine
While midterm elections data aren’t usually great go-to comparisons for presidential forecasting, it is unmistakable that New York is undergoing a red realignment. It is evident in the registration data, and in the relatively tight races of two years ago. Several recent propaganda polls have hit the Internet in recent days, but for two months between August and October, New York was consistently polling between 12-14 points in favor of Harris, and occasionally in the single digits. Presidential data do not happen in a vacuum.
Read my analysis on what New York shifting to the Republican right means historically since 1952. In almost every instance, all of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Jersey move with it. New York will absolutely tighten this year, suggesting all of these states are on a rightward trajectory.
VI. Where the Votes Aren’t
Much of the panic on the right in reading early voting tea leaves is because in many of the decisive states, there is a larger than usual male-female vote split, with 44/56 more common than the standard 48/52. Given that Democrats, even in the bluest of blue states, are usually confined to urban centers, the decrease in the overall male vote is easily decipherable by understanding that crosstab polling data and anecdotal inferences made by pundits are coming to life in the form of minority men not coming out to vote. This explains why whites are outvoting blacks handily in Fulton County, Georgia, Texas’s big five blue urban counties lag the state in percentage of the previous election’s vote turned out, and why Democrats are sweating the staggering drop-off in raw votes, thanks to black-vote atrophy and the bleeding of Hispanic voters, from Charlotte, Raleigh, Philadelphia, and other critical battleground urban areas.
Since the white working-class has shifted so heavily away from Democrats post-Obama, they cannot win without having earth-shattering turnout in urban areas, which carried Joe Biden’s ballot count in 2020.
VII. The Polls
I always caveat my shade-casting on polling so I don’t offend my friends Mark Mitchell and Richard Baris, or the rare outlets that poll with integrity in mind. Polling is just a tool, and in recent decades it has been manipulated to suppress votes, influence opinion, and justify media narratives, and that has been on overdrive in the Trump era.
Right now, Real Clear Politics has Trump up 0.5% in the popular vote, which is news in itself, and all aggregates would show leads in Wisconsin and Michigan if not for some stupid last-minute average busters that have dropped. This has been accomplished thanks to herding by mainstream pollsters to preserve credibility. Trump has consistently outrun his polling, especially in the battleground states (Wisconsin missed by an average of six points in 2020), and I don’t buy any notion that pollsters have cleaned up their methodology from previous cycles. In fact, Trump is set to gain a larger minority share than any GOP nominee since Nixon, and if party registration in Iowa, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida give us any indication, he will obtain a record share with non-college whites, potentially of much greater magnitude than his 2016 margins.
VIII. Where the Endorsements Aren’t
The Washington Post endorsed every Democrat nominee from 1992 through 2020. But not you, Kamala. Same for The Los Angeles Times and many key regional papers – shunning the Democrat nominee even against the force of furious boycotting of their gullible reader bases. They had no issue endorsing against Trump in 2016 and 2020, so why now? Like pollsters, I believe these papers are looking to preserve credibility and don’t want to back a loser. The Washington Post backed the loser in 2000, 2004, and 2016, so why not now?
IX. Peripheral Measurements
Forget cookie orders – how about real-life betting markets like PolyMarket or Kalshi? What about the polls of college students that happen to match up with early voting data suggesting a huge GOP surge with Generation Z voters? The impact of the left having overplayed the woke agenda has created a rebellious streak in young voters that resembles the well-known shift of young voters to Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide – and those were all votes the Democrats were counting on for Harris.
X. Trump is Winning the Narrative
If you know my work, you know that I believe Trump had the votes to win in 2020. He did not, however, have command of the narrative. The overwhelming narrative was so toxic that, when combined with the social narratives of right-wingers wanting to kill grandma by opening the economy, it overwhelmed our valid claims of election manipulation as vote tallies conveniently coincided with polling that showed Biden with insurmountable leads in the battleground states.
This time around, Trump has survived one assassination attempt, dodged a second potential attempt, evaded Democrat lawfare like the Roadrunner dodging Wile E. Coyote’s antics, and become quite possibly one of the most famous and noteworthy men not just in American history, but world history. He has sat for Joe Rogan, donned trashman gear at a rally, shoveled fries at McDonalds, crisscrossed the country for rallies in deep blue New York City and Southern California, posed for a viral mugshot in Atlanta, and as if he were made of Teflon, has bounced back every grenade thrown at him straight back to the enemy camp.
This time, no one would believe Trump shouldn’t have won the election.
She, on the other hand, has only the faint hope of her perceived allies in key places coming through in the clutch, and a loyalist media willing to do her bidding.
We appeal to heaven.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Republicans need to be much more diligent about securing the elections from things like CISA checking for fraud. Down ballots are not being checked and elections aren’t being reversed when fraud is found. That means cheating still pays for democrats. They are winning control of local and state elections. They used phony census results and mail in ballots to take the house and senate. I count rhinos as democrat wins.
I called it for Trump on July 5, 2024, the day the Bureau of Labor statistics released the June '24 unemployment report. It showed that the headline "U-3" unemployment rate was 4.1% compared to 3.9% in March. In all but one presidential election (1956 was the exception), if U-3 rose in the second quarter of an election year the incumbent party's candidate lost the popular vote. If it fell, the incumbent party's candidate won the popular vote. No exceptions for when U-3 fell.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000?years_option=all_years
This is not a mere correlation without a cause. Unemployment is a proxy for economic conditions on Main Street. The spring quarter predicts the November winner because there isn't enough time after June for changes in either direction to be reflected in voter sentiment. Therefore, even though I think the political wind is at Vance's back, and even though I think he's a much stronger and more intelligent candidate than the Democrats realize, I won't call the '28 election until early July of that year.