I called it for Trump on July 5, 2024, the day the Bureau of Labor statistics released the June '24 unemployment report. It showed that the headline "U-3" unemployment rate was 4.1% compared to 3.9% in March. In all but one presidential election (1956 was the exception), if U-3 rose in the second quarter of an election year the incumbent party's candidate lost the popular vote. If it fell, the incumbent party's candidate won the popular vote. No exceptions for when U-3 fell.
This is not a mere correlation without a cause. Unemployment is a proxy for economic conditions on Main Street. The spring quarter predicts the November winner because there isn't enough time after June for changes in either direction to be reflected in voter sentiment. Therefore, even though I think the political wind is at Vance's back, and even though I think he's a much stronger and more intelligent candidate than the Democrats realize, I won't call the '28 election until early July of that year.
Seth, that report made me wish we were back in 2024 on election night so we could relive the thrilling victory. I count as one of my favorite souvenirs the Challenge Coin you gave me at the Quad Cities Republican event you attended; it was a pleasure to meet you and hear you speaking live and in color. Thanks for reminding me of Roger Marris...as a seven year old baseball nut, I was all on board with Mantle, Marris and the Yankees! Grew up to be a Cub fan except for 2001 when I was working in Arizona and to everyone's amazement I picked the Diamondbacks to win it all in May (because my AZ associates were ribbing me about the Cubs).
Republicans need to be much more diligent about securing the elections from things like CISA checking for fraud. Down ballots are not being checked and elections aren’t being reversed when fraud is found. That means cheating still pays for democrats. They are winning control of local and state elections. They used phony census results and mail in ballots to take the house and senate. I count rhinos as democrat wins.
I called it for Trump on July 5, 2024, the day the Bureau of Labor statistics released the June '24 unemployment report. It showed that the headline "U-3" unemployment rate was 4.1% compared to 3.9% in March. In all but one presidential election (1956 was the exception), if U-3 rose in the second quarter of an election year the incumbent party's candidate lost the popular vote. If it fell, the incumbent party's candidate won the popular vote. No exceptions for when U-3 fell.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000?years_option=all_years
This is not a mere correlation without a cause. Unemployment is a proxy for economic conditions on Main Street. The spring quarter predicts the November winner because there isn't enough time after June for changes in either direction to be reflected in voter sentiment. Therefore, even though I think the political wind is at Vance's back, and even though I think he's a much stronger and more intelligent candidate than the Democrats realize, I won't call the '28 election until early July of that year.
Seth, that report made me wish we were back in 2024 on election night so we could relive the thrilling victory. I count as one of my favorite souvenirs the Challenge Coin you gave me at the Quad Cities Republican event you attended; it was a pleasure to meet you and hear you speaking live and in color. Thanks for reminding me of Roger Marris...as a seven year old baseball nut, I was all on board with Mantle, Marris and the Yankees! Grew up to be a Cub fan except for 2001 when I was working in Arizona and to everyone's amazement I picked the Diamondbacks to win it all in May (because my AZ associates were ribbing me about the Cubs).
Republicans need to be much more diligent about securing the elections from things like CISA checking for fraud. Down ballots are not being checked and elections aren’t being reversed when fraud is found. That means cheating still pays for democrats. They are winning control of local and state elections. They used phony census results and mail in ballots to take the house and senate. I count rhinos as democrat wins.
What is "CISA checking," for those of us who are acronym challenged?
Ditto on the challenge coin! I was quite honored.