Operation Epic Fury the Latest in Shock and Awe

Trump may be a showman, but he doesn’t bluff when he has the bombs.

If you’re on the bad side of President Donald Trump, don’t rest easy on Saturday morning. Eight weeks ago this morning, I woke up expecting to write about current U.S. political events and wound up writing about the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, which was executed with stunning military precision.

This morning, I had planned to make a few comments about my upcoming book release (Thursday, March 5), and am writing amid the thick fog of uncertainty in an escalating Middle Eastern conflict. If you’re just waking up, Operation Epic Fury kicked off in the wee hours of the morning here in America - a joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran designed to decapitate the regime.

I must admit, I am feeling ambivalent about the strikes. Reception, as you may expect, is quite mixed, ranging from people celebrating in the streets of Tehran and online to others saying this attack must be a sign that the United States is irretrievably beholden to Israeli interests. My stance is more along the lines of Charlie Kirk’s, in that my primary concerns beyond the military success of any such operation are that we don’t get sucked into a counterinsurgency operation resembling the one fought in Iraq for the best part of a decade. That was mandatory after the fallout of military forces loyal to Saddam Hussein and their attempts to step into the power vacuum created by his defeat.

Here in these early hours, the battle damage assessment is unverifiable.

Months of intelligence gathering, eerily similar to what we learned about Maduro’s habits, led to a strike on the residence of Ayatollah Khamenei as he met with key members of his senior military command. That photo is above, and if he was there, I don’t see how he could have survived - despite the pleas of Iranian propaganda. Many other military targets were struck, including those related to Iran’s nuclear capabilities or military reserves.

Iran retaliated, naturally, and most notably targeted the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet Command Headquarters in Bahrain - which will likely become a historical footnote of what F.A.F.O. means. They also retaliated not only against Israel, but against Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, and according to some reports, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. What is left of Iran is now on the wrong side of its neighbors, who are busy rattling sabers as the West largely encourages the operation.

I spent a year in the shadows of Iran’s eastern border, in the Herat Province of Afghanistan. The Iranian regime, as Americans were reminded when Trump annihilated Qasem Soleimani in January 2020, was responsible for the death and maiming of many thousands of American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan in the post 9/11 conflicts in those countries.

Bottom Line

I’m not a fan of regime change and perpetual conflict, but if you’re gonna shoot at the king, you’d better not miss. The regime has murdered tens of thousands of its own people in a desperate attempt to hold onto power in recent months, and is a constant destabilizing force in the world, Israel or no Israel. They, like Venezuela, were buddied up with China. The (successful) removal of the Iranian regime will bring freedom to a people with a rich heritage and likely provide the United States with an ally in a key region grateful for the freedom.

Here is how I would define successful:

• No conventional forces deployed on the ground

• Khamenei and line of succession eliminated

• Pro-West head of state in power

• Economic benefit to the United States

We can wish all we want for no military conflict with Iran; now that it has begun, we are looking at best outcomes. Trump has been talking about Cuba lately, saying that we may peacefully take it over soon. Is it possible that in the first 18 months of Trump’s presidency, the Venezuelan, Iranian, and Cuban regimes will be deposed and forced into a friendly disposition with the United States?

Pray for positive outcomes and a SUCCESSFUL end to the operation in Iran. Iran shouldn’t have tempted President Trump to act in this way, and now they’ve paid the price. Turns out chanting “Death to America” can only go on for so long.

Now, back to figuring out how to launch a book in the middle of an emerging global conflict.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.