Primary Rules for Grassroots Patriots

I’ve seen what is about to happen go wrong way too many times.

I’m learning to manage two political instincts these days. The first is my own ideology, which is pretty far to the so-called “right,” but aware many ideas within the camp are outdated; the second is the pragmatic side of my brain, which may not always be aligned with my ideology. I can give you no greater example than how I feel about Susan Collins. She’s a coin flip on any pressure-packed vote in the Senate, yet after three Trump-era presidential elections in Maine, I can tell she’s also the only Republican who can win that seat.

You successfully primary Susan Collins - you lose a seat.

“Oh, wow, Captain K is a RINO!” I can hear it now in my imagination. Nope, I just know my fastball is going to get hit in that state, so I’m throwing the curve. Sometimes we wind up having to replace retiring candidates, like Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-14) or Don Bacon (NE-2); yet, most of the time when we are shouting primary, it is because candidates have really screwed the pooch. Candidates like:

The fleabag Indiana senators who are fine letting Democrats entrench their seats in stone in a state Trump won by almost 19 points have no issue with Virginia flipping four Republican seats in a state Harris won by just 6. They can all find something else to do, and I am hoping to partner with anyone and everyone in the Hoosier State to provide mapping and analytics to make sure they all become lobbyists by 2027. In almost all cases, if you fail to fight the Democrats, you get primaried.

Personally, I believe we have it all backward with the way we think about incumbents and primaries. There is safety in incumbency (meaning a higher likelihood of being reelected). One of the first things I’ll do when evaluating all 435 U.S. House seats next year is weigh the important of seats losing their incumbent. GA-14 will be fine for the GOP; NE-2 probably will not. Instead of planning to keep all incumbents and selecting the worst ones in a particular cycle, like Liz Cheney in 2022, we should start with primarying in mind and then making the choice to keep the incumbent - like we do with special cases like Susan Collins or with excellent legislators or other office holders.

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What Does it Take to Win?

I remember the 2022 cycle very well. Plenty of election integrity fighters jumped right in there and went straight for U.S. House seats or even gubernatorial races. In almost every case, our guys got smoked. Sure, elections are a problem and will remain one until the federal government crushes the interstate corruption and legislatures tighten things up, but it takes a lot to emerge at the head of the pack: