As someone who lives in Newsom's California, this is a pretty good analysis. I think Valadao is likely to survive as he knows how to play the ballot collection game well after 2018. Desmond, Gallagher, and Kiley could also win their seats as they face weak opponents in the General election. If RNC vs Watson is decided favorably, then their chances improve.
I agree John. I too live in CA and agree this is a pretty good analysis. I agree with you on Valadao as he knows how to play the ballot harvesting game. I do not know Gallagher, but I think Kiley and Desmond have a good chance of winning. Kiley was the one who kept suing and winning against Newsom during Covid, so he has that in his favor. Desmond helped fight and win against the gas tax in San Diego and Newsom is planning to have a gas tax initiative on the ballot. There is also a Voter ID initiative that will be on the general election ballot. The democrats tried everything to not have it on the ballot, but from what I have read and heard it will be. Darrell Issa also endorsed Desmond (I believe), so that could help him. Additionally, Steve Hilton will advance to the General. There is also a prop on the ballot to save prop 13, so I believe that will help get voters to turn out particularly the older voters. I just looked at what areas makes up the map for CA 48 and if played right and strategically then Desmond has a good chance of winning.
After reading Seth Keshel’s California House overview, the idea is not getting worse. California is America’s mother ship of electile dysfunction: jungle primaries, ballot fog, endless counting, Democrat gerrymanders, and a political class that treats representation as an engineering project. Keshel’s map is brutal: Democrats are trying to turn a 43-9 advantage into something closer to 48-4, then pretend democracy happened. California is not a state election system anymore. It is a ballot-harvesting industrial park.
California is now OFFICIALLY a 3rd W country or worse. My country of birth, India which is also a 3rd w country (with numerous issues from supreme corruption to brain dead leaders), does elections BETTER than CA. How low can CA sink...stay tuned.
Very difficult with segregated loyalties. I'm fine with knowing and celebrating one's heritage but i'm not okay with working against the country one has made the choice in which to live. Even more frustrating are multi generational Americans hating America. It's gotta be spiritual warfare.
It is an entire state of illegitimacy.
As someone who lives in Newsom's California, this is a pretty good analysis. I think Valadao is likely to survive as he knows how to play the ballot collection game well after 2018. Desmond, Gallagher, and Kiley could also win their seats as they face weak opponents in the General election. If RNC vs Watson is decided favorably, then their chances improve.
If you’re right, then it critically harms the Dems’ already very narrow pathway to 218. I consider them getting to 48-4 essential for a majority.
I agree John. I too live in CA and agree this is a pretty good analysis. I agree with you on Valadao as he knows how to play the ballot harvesting game. I do not know Gallagher, but I think Kiley and Desmond have a good chance of winning. Kiley was the one who kept suing and winning against Newsom during Covid, so he has that in his favor. Desmond helped fight and win against the gas tax in San Diego and Newsom is planning to have a gas tax initiative on the ballot. There is also a Voter ID initiative that will be on the general election ballot. The democrats tried everything to not have it on the ballot, but from what I have read and heard it will be. Darrell Issa also endorsed Desmond (I believe), so that could help him. Additionally, Steve Hilton will advance to the General. There is also a prop on the ballot to save prop 13, so I believe that will help get voters to turn out particularly the older voters. I just looked at what areas makes up the map for CA 48 and if played right and strategically then Desmond has a good chance of winning.
I once argued for Lex Luthor’s plan to sink California into the ocean and make Arizona beachfront property.
https://luthmann.substack.com/p/californias-lettuce-picker-lottery
After reading Seth Keshel’s California House overview, the idea is not getting worse. California is America’s mother ship of electile dysfunction: jungle primaries, ballot fog, endless counting, Democrat gerrymanders, and a political class that treats representation as an engineering project. Keshel’s map is brutal: Democrats are trying to turn a 43-9 advantage into something closer to 48-4, then pretend democracy happened. California is not a state election system anymore. It is a ballot-harvesting industrial park.
California is now OFFICIALLY a 3rd W country or worse. My country of birth, India which is also a 3rd w country (with numerous issues from supreme corruption to brain dead leaders), does elections BETTER than CA. How low can CA sink...stay tuned.
A Republic, if you can keep it.
Very difficult with segregated loyalties. I'm fine with knowing and celebrating one's heritage but i'm not okay with working against the country one has made the choice in which to live. Even more frustrating are multi generational Americans hating America. It's gotta be spiritual warfare.
Thank you. This is the one that I have been waiting for.