Race for the House: Pennsylvania Overview and Seat Ratings + Fetterman Switching?

Preliminary ratings for PA’s 17 House seats and my take on Fetterman’s maneuvering

Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.

The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

Previous:

Mid-Atlantic

New England

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INTRODUCTION

Pennsylvania has one of the fairest maps in the country, and one that has afforded a strong GOP advantage (10-7) in America’s most critical battleground state. Pennsylvania has a strong Republican shift in voter registration dating back to 2010, but Democrats are starting to get back into the game thanks to the upcoming May 19 primary elections. You’ll see that damage in Saturday’s voter registration update. Unfortunately, with Josh Shapiro up for reelection, it’s the GOP on defense this cycle.

Here is my evaluation of Pennsylvania’s 2024 presidential election:

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Analysis

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PENNSYLVANIA

PA-2: Brendan Boyle (D), running for 7th term in Philadelphia, +43.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-3: Open seat, Dwight Evans (D) retiring from core Philadelphia, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE DEM

PA-4: Madeleine Dean (D), running for 5th term, +18.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-5: Mary Gay Scanlon (D), running for 6th term, +30.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-6: Chrissy Houlahan (D), running for 5th term, +12.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-9: Dan Meuser (R), running for 5th term, +41.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-11: Lloyd Smucker (R), running for 6th term, +25.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-12: Summer Lee (D), running for 3rd term, +12.8% margin in 2024 is a leaner in a Republican year, but not for 2026 - SAFE

PA-13: John Joyce (R), running for 5th term, +48.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-14: Guy Reschenthaler (R), running for 5th term, +33.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-15: Glenn Thompson (R), running for 10th term, +43.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-16: Mike Kelly (R), running for 9th term, +27.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-17: Chris Deluzio (D), running for 3rd term, +7.8% margin in 2024 makes for a leaner in a Republican year, but not in 2026 - SAFE

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PENNSYLVANIA SUMMARY

Democrat 7

Republican 6

Leaner 1 (PA-1)

Decisive 3 (PA-7, PA-8, PA-10)

Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on PA-7, PA-8, and PA-10 (decisive), as well as PA-2 (Republican leaner). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.

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What About Fetterman?