Captain K's Corner

Captain K's Corner

Redistrict ‘26: Updates from the Virginia and Florida Fronts

Courses of action range from -4 to +8 NET for Republicans

Capt. Seth Keshel's avatar
Capt. Seth Keshel
Apr 29, 2026
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You may have noticed I began rolling out my 2026 House previews earlier this month, starting with an overview of the “safe” seats in New England. As I make my way down the East Coast, I’m going to have to take a “wait and see” approach on two important states - Virginia and Florida. Despite not being a battleground state, I’ve had to spend an inordinate amount of time covering the Old Dominion because of the rampant corruption there. My latest coverage of Virginia is an autopsy of the redistricting referendum, which passed by roughly 3 points last Tuesday:


UPDATES

Virginia

Ken Cuccinelli was Johnny-on-the-spot when it came to legal recourse in Virginia, and he began putting truth bombs downrange immediately:

There’s always hope, and Ken Cuccinelli lays it out:

X avatar for @KenCuccinelli
Ken Cuccinelli II@KenCuccinelli
The "yes" vote has won Va's redistricting referendum — but the legal fight is just beginning. Four Va Constitutional challenges are now teed up: THREE challenges to the amendment process itself: 1️⃣ First passage was invalid. The amendment was taken up during a special session
1:31 AM · Apr 22, 2026 · 454K Views

398 Replies · 2.76K Reposts · 9.98K Likes

The first three points laid out by Cuccinelli, who nearly won the Virginia governorship in 2013, have to do with procedural items and timing-related complaints the court had every opportunity to rule on months ago. The fourth point, however, is the most effective:

Art. II, §6 requires that “every electoral district shall be composed of contiguous and compact territory.” The proposed congressional maps violate this contiguity requirement (rather badly).

The next day (April 22), a judge in Tazewell County put a stop to any certification of the referendum’s results. This sent the online left into a tailspin, and just two days ago, the Virginia Supreme Court began hearing arguments about the referendum (such as those Cuccinelli outlines above). Jonathan Turley has pointed out Attorney General Jay Jones’s weakness in defending the ridiculous language used for the referendum, and the legality of even launching such a ballot measure:

X avatar for @JonathanTurley
Jonathan Turley@JonathanTurley
Fox is out with my column on the oral argument over the challenge to Virginia's gerrymandering. foxnews.com/opinion/jonath… Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones was less than stellar in defending the vague language of the resolution on CNN...
foxnews.com
JONATHAN TURLEY: Virginia Democrats' map scheme faces judgment at the high court
6:25 PM · Apr 26, 2026 · 78.9K Views

47 Replies · 544 Reposts · 2.96K Likes

Uncertainty over this process has made its way into the betting markets. Polymarket bettors are bailing out of their once-certain positions that the 10-1 Democrat map was going to be in play in November:

The best indicator that the Democrat takeover is in serious peril is yesterday’s announcement that the Virginia Supreme Court declined to lift Tazewell’s injunction.

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