55 Comments
User's avatar
Mary Mc's avatar

I voted for Romney because I felt i had no choice. I read BHO's books and KNEW exactly what he was and how he would govern.

Romney isnt the nice guy he portrayed. He's a back stabbing weakling. Would he have been better than Obama, probably; but wouldnt have been any worse.

I've always liked Andy Biggs but find that "consultants" often only care about their fees. Of course they want lots of media ads placed; they get a percentage of that money. Most of them aee like lawyers, they will work for an support whomever pays them.

I cant vote for Andy but based on what Ive seen and heard about Hobbs, it's hard to believe she would be reelected. She's not too bright and I have no doubt that she messed with the 2020/22 elections.

Thank you for at least trying to help. Unfortunately, I suspect you analysis is correct. 😕

Capt. Seth Keshel's avatar

Would appreciate it if everyone would stop using the comments like it is X.

Rick's avatar

You can’t vote for Biggs? Are you insane?

Your cognitive dissonance is off the charts, or you’re just a troll. Probably the latter. Yuck

Mary Mc's avatar

Just like knee jerk Ds; you jump off the "ASSUME" cliff without bothering to ask for clarification.

Did it ever occur to you that I don't live in AZ? Not too bright are you? 🙄

Rick's avatar

You are Embarrassed I guess.

Ron's avatar

She said she doesn't live in AZ. Not embarrassed, but you should be.

James Farrell's avatar

The Hobbs campaign is already running ads in Prime Time tv local media claiming that she's responsible for "lowering taxes" and claiming that SHE is responsible for (get this) " no tax on tips, no tax on overtime"!!?? Her campaign is taking a victory lap for a Trump initiative!

Seriously!!

Laura's avatar

Doing a day of service for 9/11 in Gilbert Arizona and Andy Biggs is here. I too agree he has been hands off. But Kari lake went all in and the cheating was so massive that part of me wonders what can be done? We have to clean up the voter rolls first and foremost and limit mail in ballots

The Great Santini's avatar

Thanks for the honest assessment. The Romney approach has been a dead loser forever. Republicans had better bring determination, aggression and a desire to crush their enemies.

Woody's avatar

I remember Romney absolutely shellacking Obama in that first debate. Romney was knowledgeable, prepared and made Obama look like a grade school AOC. Then something happened and he called off the dogs. Something or someone got to him and he played establishment nice and lost. Years later we discovered what an establishment tool bag Romney was and that it probably made very little difference who was in office.

I think Biggs has screwed this up beyond repair. If it’s even close, the crooks will figure out how to manufacture the ballots and then, being judge and jury to their own crimes again, they will challenge the “conspiracy theorists” to attempt to make things right for the people. This shit is so tiresome. I, and I suppose most others, have nearly given up hope that anything real can be done to have fair elections or any true accountability for those installed into office. The Tier 1 donor class, with all their money and influence, call all the shots. And the Tier 2 shadow government career alphabet agency clowns run cover for them. Captain, do you ever feel like you’re banging your head against a wall?

Dean R Marshall's avatar

It did seem like the USPS mail-ballot rules would solve enough of this to keep a lid on the fraudsters but it's now looking like SCOTUS will sit on their DUFUS and then declare "we couldn't possibly allow these rules for this election because it's too late" and provide another soft, feel-good, get along to get along ruling. Why didn't SCOTUS say the MO Supreme Court decision was too late? CaptK reecenttly revealed a solid theory on that.

Woody's avatar

Well, my friend, when you understand that the three branches of government are Tier 3 leadership that do the bidding of the Tier 2 deep state and the Tier 1 donor class it all starts to make sense.

My advice would be to live your life, love your family, spend as much time with your kids and grandkids knowing, with all it’s irredeemable warts, this is still the greatest Banana Republic in the world to exist in by far.

It is a shame the people don’t have more influence. But when you look at have crazy the general population is it may be ironic that the current set up has worked this well for this long. Perhaps the criminal elites controlling everything is in everyone’s best interest. IYKYK

Dave Campbell's avatar

Thanks for ringing the alarm

Bell LOUDLY. Hope the called out wake up and DO WHAT IS REQUIRED TO WIN!!

John Schmidt's avatar

What the GOP consultant class does not appreciate is that defeating a Democrat incumbent, particularly during a mid cycle election, requires a ruthless aggression that is more Lee Atwater and less Karl Rove. This is how an acceptable candidate like Biggs ends up losing to a Democrat like Katie Hobbs.

David Caruso's avatar

Mormons/LDS - what is happening? Let me go into territory I don't fully understand and see what I can learn. I lived in Northern VA (25+ years). In NOVA, I met many LDS people, and many were friends and work colleagues. Because UT was always deep red (and all of them had strong connections to UT), I assumed they were happy about Trump and MAGA. But NO, I was told by several (friends and close co-workers) that although they like GOP policies and voted for Trump themselves, he and MAGA offended their LDS view of the world - rough language, what they see as unnecessary combativeness, and attention-seeking. They said they had family members who did not vote for Trump/MAGA candidates (they just stayed home because he/MAGA upsets them).

When I look at LDS politicians, Mike Lee being the exception, my brain just registers "wimp." Look at Romney. Look at Spencer Cox. Even Biggs has a wimpiness to him. Look at what is happening to "deep red" UT? I was in SLC a few years ago and saw more "pride" and BLM flags than I see in any other place in the US.

Can anyone speak to this? Am I missing something? Does this stem from the LDS mission and mindset?

Capt. Seth Keshel's avatar

It is all about “decency” with many of them. Doesn’t matter if the people being shown quarter are evil, at least they’re not as mean! Social approval, professional acceptance etc.

Tom Gelsinon's avatar

Utah is like AZ, CO, and OR. The problem is the Californication of those states.

Robert's avatar

Katie Hobbs stole the 2022 election from Kari Lake, and tried to cover it up. When November comes around, if Hobbs hasn't already been arrested, she will be.

Elizabeth Connelly's avatar

From your lips to G-d’s, I mean, Todd’s ear😂 Funny - not funny!

Robert's avatar

It's coming Elizabeth, very soon. Start paying attention to everything that Trump is saying. He is literally telling us what he intends to do.

why's avatar

Or what he wants to do. Piss in one hand, wish in the other.

VikingMom's avatar

Romney in 2012 was no different than McCain in 2008 - they were told to throw the race and they did, albeit in very different ways! Was it for money? Were they blackmailed? Did they just want the adulation of the permanent political class and the mainstream media who never fail to call them "honorable men" for their refusal to actually try to win?

Andy Biggs is following the same pattern. He is barely even mounting a campaign, against an unlikable opponent, with a history of questionable associations and bad decisions. And Arizona will get the same results as Romney did in 2012 - people will just stay home and Hobbs will win, because her opponent couldn't be bothered to actually get dirty and fight to win!

Capt. Seth Keshel's avatar

Precisely what I’m getting at. It will be a default result. Not a bloodbath, but not much of a fight either.

VikingMom's avatar

Yep - it's so disappointing to see the GOP repeat the same pattern, again and again...thank you for trying to sound the alarm anyway though. 😢

Rick's avatar

Damn difficult post to read,

Rick's avatar

But i agree with much of it.

I think the biggest problem is the McCain residue, who have dug their grifted asses into the floor boards of the GOP here in Az.

Trump needs to visit Tucson and Phoenix and I bet he will.

PalmerstonSalisbury's avatar

Captain Keshel -- have you read Kevin Phillips' book 'The Emerging Republican Majority'? If so, has the work influenced your political analysis? As a (fairly) young Brit, who correctly predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2016 during my adolescence, I am grateful to the likes of yourself, Larry Schweikart and Rich Baris for providing data that the mainstream media doesn't cover or deliberately omits.

One of my regrets from the past presidential election was not staking money on President Trump to win Michigan, a state that in the final days of the election campaign -- according to Polymarket -- was around (if my memory is correct) 87% likely to vote for Kamala Harris. Due to the fact that Trump was expected by the same market provider to win the presidential election, I believed the odds were too favourable for Ms Harris to win Michigan, especially when the Wolverine State had backed the 45th President in 2016.

Regarding suburban Republicans leaving the party since Trump's emergence in 2015/16, a similar situation has occurred in the United Kingdom since Brexit, with affluent, Conservative voters switching their allegiance on-masse to the Liberal Democrats, a vehemently pro-European Union party that isn't as supportive of wealth redistribution as Labour, but is quite socially progressive (e.g. pro-LGBT, pro-abortion, pro-immigration etc..)

Capt. Seth Keshel's avatar

Thanks for the comment and also the insight… I lost a lot of money in 2020 on those markets because of all the cheating. I haven’t read his book.

It is embarrassing watching former GOP switch sides. My take is that those voters don’t “need” the Trump reforms. They are set and want status quo. It is a sick thing.

On another note, are the efforts of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland serious?

PalmerstonSalisbury's avatar

Thank you for taking the time from your schedule to respond to my comment. I also lost a 'big league' sum of £200 (to use a phrase beloved by your president), predicting that Donald Trump would defeat Joe Biden.

Concerning the Kevin Phillips book, I would strongly recommend you read the work, even though I've only digested the first section that focuses on the sociology of politics in the North East. The amount of detail Phillips contributes is invaluable and rewarding for the reader, especially when the author forwards the intriguing idea with a plethora of evidence that American politics is essentially a long-term battle between the Yankees and Southerners. If you are a data lover, the book is brimmed with statistics (even at the precinct level), discussing how ethnic politics was a factor in American politics as far back as the 19th century. President Nixon read 'The Emerging Republican Majority' and whose victory over Hubert Humphrey was partly attributed to the priceless value of Mr Phillips's advice that was later published in this accessible book.

In regards to the independence efforts of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the only nation I can state for near certainty that wouldn't vote to leave the United Kingdom in the next five-to-ten years is Wales. The country is too Anglicised and connected with England to consider leaving the Union in the near future. Except for perhaps the Welsh speaking heartlands that are mainly rural and are inclined to support the left-wing separatist party Plaid Cymru, I can't imagine any other counting area in the country that would opt for independence, especially those where the Welsh language and Plaid Cymru are linguistically and electorally unimportant. That being said, Welsh independence polling has risen in recent years and Plaid Cymru made history in the country this year, becoming the first party other than Labour to form a government in Wales since limited devolution was introduced to the country in 1999. Although, I still maintain that Welsh independence is still a distant prospect that is likely to take decades to be fulfilled.

Despite the excited fervour that has emerged in recent years in regards to a 'United Ireland' amongst Irish nationalists, I personally believe that if a referendum were to occur in the near future (next five years or so), the relatively divided demographics (N.I is roughly 50/50 British/Irish) Northern Ireland would vote to remain within the United Kingdom, solely on the basis that the British (Protestants) would vehemently vote *against* reunification, whilst the Irish (Catholics) would likely vote in favour of the proposition, although their support wouldn't be as strong to overcome the expected overwhelming opposition by British Unionists. With the future demographics of Northern Ireland favouring the Catholic Irish, a 'United Ireland' *could* be won in the coming decades, despite my position that reunification won't be achieved in the next few years.

On the Scotland question, I believe the nation has strongest possibility of independence of any of the nations you enquired. Since the 2014 Referendum that saw the country reject independence by a 55-45% margin, the question still looms large over British politics, with polling showing the Scottish public is tightly divided on the question. If Reform win the next general election (scheduled to occur before 2029), expect deafening calls by independence supporters for another separatist referendum. This likely reaction can be attributed to Reform's general unpopularity in the country, with the party expected (according to current polling, at least) not to win a single Scottish constituency at the upcoming general election. Researchers have noted that there is no correlation with pro-independence supporters becoming Unionist as they grow older, meaning that older people who are the age cohort most likely to be pro-Union, aren't being replaced by new Unionists. The latter scenario suggests independence is a future inevitability, although I would disbelieve anyone who is certain in making a definitive prediction of how Scotland would vote in a potential referendum in the next five-to-ten years.

Additionally, I should add that right-wing Americans shouldn't be too supportive of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein, irrespective of whether they agree with their separatist efforts. These parties hold positions that are just -- or even more -- progressive than the Labour Party and the American Democratic Party. Here's a taster of the sort of views they hold:

'Nicola Sturgeon (Former SNP leader and 'First Minister of Scotland': 2014-2023): My chief regret is not starting Covid lockdown sooner'

https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,nicola-sturgeon-my-chief-regret-is-not-starting-covid-lockdown-sooner

(A policy in Scotland that would appoint a 'state guardian' to every child was reluctantly pulled by the SNP government in 2019:)

'Good riddance to the Named Person scheme'

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/23/good-riddance-to-the-named-person-scheme/

(The Welsh Government which supported this publicly unpopular proposal that was accused of interfering with child rearing, was a coalition between Labour and Plaid Cymru; the SNP in Scotland also introduced a similar ban during the latter half of the 2010s)

'Wales to bring in smacking ban after assembly vote - 28th January 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51266509

'Sinn Féin committed to seeing true LGBTQI+ equality achieved' - 2020 – Mary Lou McDonald TD (Leader of Sinn Fein)

(You can read a free preview of Kevin Phillips's book to see if you would be interested in purchasing it)

https://www.amazon.com/Emerging-Republican-Majority-American-Politics-ebook/dp/B00M5JXUHO?

'How a demographic time-bomb threatens to fracture the Union' - The Times

https://archive.is/4eHYT#selection-1352.0-1352.1

why's avatar

I've become soured with the Republican party since the neocons have taken reign again. Empire-building (under the banner of foreign occupation) continues. That doesn't mean I'm interested in a commiecrat.

john galt's avatar

As a resident of Arizona in 2000, I saw firsthand the absolute corruption on the part of Hobbs and the Dem establishment with the total support of the Arizona Republic, a newsrag as corrupt as the Dems. Voting centers shut down in Republican districts, massive ballot deliveries after polling stations shut down, and last, but not least, failure to allow Republicans to vote and failure to deliver Republican ballots. Hobbs was literally in charge of the 2000 election rather than allowing it to be run by an independent. Kari Lake was an outstanding candidate but Hobbs made sure her fraud and corruption ruled the election with massive support from the Arizona Republic.

why's avatar

You wrote 2020 twice. I wish we could go back to that era and before.

Steenroid's avatar

Republicans have fear of winning and want to be moderate. Might have worked years ago when they were up against moderates but that is not the case today.

Sally Sisk Miller's avatar

Captain! Couldn’t agree with you more! When is President Trump coming to Arizona to bail Biggs out? I truly believe this will save him and save Arizona!

Capt. Seth Keshel's avatar

I am not sure even he can do that heavy lifting for him.

Scott L's avatar

How accurate are the AZ polls?

Capt. Seth Keshel's avatar

They’re all over the place. I’m not buying the 12+ points. I’m sensing 4-6%.