12 Comments
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The Muni Guy's avatar

I subscribed today. Outside of Maine, what might be the best prediction market bet(s)? Many thanks.

Capt. Seth Keshel's avatar

Thank you! House seats like OH-9, NC-1 etc.

The Muni Guy's avatar

Thank you so much! The combination of having the arithmetic and Dem/media manipulation it feels like having a house advantage.

Tricia Davis's avatar

Please don't just worry, organize and get out the GOP votes for your state. We need to be more involved. I'm from Colorado and we are turning into California, but we finally have a duo for Governor and Lt Governor who are Veterans, critical thinking, conservatives that we are pushing for their win. Cross your fingers for us.

Deb Nance's avatar

I just might have to go home to Iowa and kick some Hawkeye butt!

Jay McIntyre's avatar

As a Pennsylvanian, when should I start to worry?

Capt. Seth Keshel's avatar

When the bellwether counties start zooming left. We will know in the run up to the 2028 presidential primary how things are moving. This is the first real midterm chapter of a GOP president in action with PA’s voter rolls near even. Back in 2018 the realignment was still burning hot. A lot of the counties are now maxed out and the gains will need to be more urban.

Richard Luthmann's avatar

Keshel’s reported figures describe two different mechanisms: genuine acquisition and administrative subtraction. Florida’s steady Republican gain after its primary points to accumulation. Nevada’s apparent Republican win came from both parties losing thousands, with Democrats losing more. That is relative advantage created by list maintenance, not persuasion. Pennsylvania adds another distinction: statewide Democratic growth concentrated in Philadelphia, surrounding counties, and Allegheny, while Erie, Monroe, and Northampton barely moved. That pattern suggests mobilization inside metropolitan coalitions rather than broad geographic realignment. The model becomes useful when it separates acquisition, switching, migration, and purge effects instead of collapsing them into one headline number.

CarmenSense575's avatar

Don't ignore ore New Mexico. We have finally a chance to get a repub in as governor after over 100 year rule of Democrat money laundering

TJ Jackson's avatar

Unfortunately your report neglects to show voter registration among the cementary set. A hroup the Demonrats refuses to reveal nor corect for reasons that elude me since we are told they do not vote, just as we are continuously told illegals do not vote, because the Black Panthers guard voting distrincts with baseball bats to insure fair and just voting.

CarmenSense575's avatar

New Mexico ignored completely. Why?