Years ago, Larry Schweikart used to tell people that he doesn’t “hold hands” over bad polling. His comments on X, then Twitter, were always filled with “what about that poll from (state)?” He got sick of it, warned people he would block them if all the concerns persisted, and now people finally understand that Larry doesn’t “do” polls. Thankfully, due to the utter trash that makes up modern polling, most people realize it, too.
Above, you can see some examples of what passes for polling these days. Those are snapshots of the Arizona Senate race from this exact week in 2024, showing some wild misses, including Marist’s. Marist yesterday did their “look at me” routine over Texas. Despite being critical of polling, I have a sober view of what elections may bring us this fall:
I am here to help candidates and campaigns win. I am in touch with one major U.S. Senate candidate on a nearly daily basis now over his race. I have produced serious analysis on the U.S. House races that will decide that chamber’s majority, and they have made their way all the way to the candidates and the top of the Republican Party. Still, I center my assessments on historical precedence and political reality, and don’t get caught up in all the noise and “red wave” cheerleading that defies reality.
The goal of a midterm with your party’s president in office is survival. Should Democrats win the House (or even the Senate) in November, many people will go off the ledge, thinking the MAGA movement is dead or giving up hope for the good fight of liberty. In reality, a Democrat majority will arguably do more to advance the MAGA agenda and strengthen the likely Vance/Rubio (or Rubio/Vance) ticket in 2028 than defying the odds and holding the House will. Imagine what they’ll do:
Convene investigative panels and committees to go after Trump on personal issues, made-up financial affairs, and now, Iranian military action
Impeach Trump multiple times, despite being unable to secure a conviction in the Senate
Hold up all of Trump’s popular legislative ideas, which he will almost certainly lob at them just so they screw themselves
Stop worrying about impeachment and removal. If it didn’t happen after J6, it won’t happen. The effort to impeach Bill Clinton backfired on the Republican Party, and my guess is that Trump’s economy will boom in the last two years of his tenure, as it has already shown some signs of doing with expected Q3 growth. Aircraft carriers take a long time to turn around, and that is not something a society mired in instant gratification wants to hear.
Still, the question remains - can we fix this politically? Can America be set on a pathway to success, see evil-doers punished, be rid of political and institutional corruption using the political process? I tire of seeing anonymous wannabe revolutionaries online and have begun to clap back:
You only have two choices regarding America’s current issues: Fix the political process or commence the process of abolishing government that Thomas Jefferson detailed. For the written record, I do not endorse “the big ugly” that the latter point entails, and think people of good faith must first put shoulder to plow to fix the political process. Are we doing that? Let us examine together:
THREE SIGNS WE DON’T “GET IT”
I. Checked Out and Asleep at the Wheel
You and I “get it.” You read this newsletter because you have interest in American politics and presumably prefer the first option listed above, which is to engage in fixing American politics. 34,000 email addresses get this newsletter, and I am ranked in the Top 100 in the U.S. politics genre for paid subscriptions, which constitute less than 10% of my email list. There are precincts in Pima County, Arizona, that register more votes tallied in a presidential election than there are paid subscribers to my newsletter.
I have 85,000 followers on X. There are nearly that many Democrat presidential votes in Pinal County, Arizona, which Kamala Harris lost by 22.1%. The problem here is that we, the people who pay attention to this stuff, think everyone feels the same way or considers the same issues we fret over to be existential issues. It is a huge world out there, and my Dad always said, “10% of the people lead the way; 90% are just along for the ride.”
You may not realize it, but there are a lot of people who have no idea an election is even upon us. We are aware of this unfortunate fact (that people don’t realize an election is coming up) because we are busy as hell trying to win reelection in the Arizona House:
Living Through What We All Hate
Most readers of Captain K’s Corner know that I am married to State Representative Rachel Keshel, who represents Arizona’s 17th Legislative District. I gave an overview of her campaign on Saturday, August 1, and readers responded with a very strong fundraising drive:
Let me explain why midterms usually hurt the president’s party in layman’s terms: