The Iranian Peace Deal is Essential for A GOP Midterm Victory

Straight talk on pulling off a 2026 trick shot for the ages

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A typical social media conversation follows:

“How come, with all this party registration data favoring Republicans, they’re not expected to gain seats in 2026?”

Answer: I’ve been trying to tell everyone who will listen that 92 years’ worth of midterm data suggests the President’s party (the Republican Party this time around) will lose seats in a midterm. In order to defy the precedent, 20 out of 23 midterms with that party losing seats since 1934 (when Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig were still playing for the New York Yankees), you’ll have to have a combination of sustained success, good fortune, an enemy that is incompetent, and as much control over world and domestic events as possible.

“But how can the people not see that the Democrats want to turn us into a socialist country?”

Answer: Well, tens of millions of Americans do. But too many people who are happy that Trump is back don’t know what the other branches of government do and aren’t worried about voting this year because they’re not engaged as part of the long-term solution. However, I can guaran-damn-tee you that every single Trump hater, leftist sociopath, and communist revolutionary-wannabe will be out in droves to vote against Trump’s agenda, because they’ve been brainwashed by every institution they’ve come in contact with for a lifetime.

If that’s not bad enough, the mail-in ballot scam that is now a national crisis will tip many close seats they otherwise couldn’t win, and there is also a small percentage of Americans who belong to this group that think they can simply swap partisan support and save a couple hundred bucks on gasoline, junk food, and a few other commodities. If they have to elect a totalitarian party to feel better about themselves, that’s what they’ll do - and they’ll just tell you you’re racist and that Trump is a convicted felon.

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Does the above back-and-forth answer your questions?

It doesn’t have to make sense in your mind, but less than 10% of the electorate will either retain the GOP majorities in the House and the Senate or dismiss one or both (with the Senate being very unlikely). Right now, Polymarket bettors give the GOP 20% odds to hold the House, which I think is a bit low:

This piece isn’t about whether President Trump should have struck Iran. I have multiple feelings on the topic, which many of you have read about within these virtual pages:

• Iran is essential to China’s future ambitions

• 47 years’ worth of American presidents have talked tough in Iran

• Iran is the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism

• Iran mass murders its own citizens, and would certainly have no issue handing nuclear weapons to terrorist groups

• I don’t trust any foreign government, including those belonging to our perceived or realpolitik allies

• We don’t owe it to the region, the world, or any other country to engage in a decades-long nation-building operation in Iran

Too many people have viewed the Iran conflict as an “either-or” conundrum because they are informed by an X algorithm. Some think Trump entered the conflict because he was pressured by Israel to do so; ironically, it seems Trump went right to the heads of the regional nations first to scratch out the framework of this looming peace agreement, which really throws a wrench in the narrative of who Trump is owned by.

A couple of weeks ago, I sent over an estimate of where I have the U.S. House majority race at (as you can read in my regional overviews in this newsletter) to my friend and colleague, Newt Gingrich. He simply replied, “How much will the price of gas on Labor Day impact this?”

Which brings me right to the point of checking boxes for victory…

Several paragraphs up, I specified the conditions for a GOP midterm hold:

• Sustained success

• Good fortune

• Incompetent enemy

• Control over world and domestic events

Right now, the Republican Senate has given itself a terrible black eye for its inaction on the SAVE America Act, and its incumbents are now paying the price. The House has done somewhat better with a small majority, but either way, Americans have rewarded the GOP with mounting voter registration gains. The party has made its own fortunes by turning the tide post-Callais (and with the help of Florida) in winning the redistricting war, and they are blessed to have an opposing party with a 20% approval rating.

All that is lacking now is to exert control over world events. I had specified these four outcomes as essential the day I learned of the first strikes in Iran: