Race for the House: Carolinas Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for NC and SC
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Previous:
Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)
New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
INTRODUCTION
I have been waiting for South Carolina to figure out what it wants to do about redistricting post-Callais; unfortunately for the rest of us, they’ve decided to do the Dixiecrat caving routine common with emasculated Southern politicians and allow Jim Clyburn to survive for another term in a district drawn to select a candidate based on the color of his skin (and not the content of his character).
The Republicans may have room to expand in both states as soon as the 2028 cycle, but the maps are sturdy for this cycle and easy to predict. North Carolina recently redrew the boundaries of NC-1 and its bordering districts, and as such, I am not including previous margins from 2024 for that state.
Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:
BOOK RECOMMENDATION
For my readers, a strong recommendation for historian Larry Schweikart’s latest:
Analysis
NORTH CAROLINA
NC-2: Deborah Ross (D), running for 4th term - SAFE
NC-3: Greg Murphy (R), running for 5th term - SAFE
NC-4: Valerie Foushee (D), running for 3rd term - SAFE
NC-5: Virginia Foxx (R), running for 12th term - SAFE
NC-6: Addison McDowell (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE
NC-7: David Rouzer (R), running for 7th term - SAFE
NC-8: Mark Harris (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE
NC-9: Richard Hudson (R), running for 8th term - SAFE
NC-10: Pat Harrigan (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE
NC-11: Chuck Edwards (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
NC-12: Alma Adams (D), running for 8th term - SAFE
NC-13: Brad Knott (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE
NC-14: Tim Moore (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE
SOUTH CAROLINA
SC-1: Open seat, Nancy Mace (R) retiring, +16.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP
SC-2: Joe Wilson (R), running for 14th term, +19.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
SC-3: Sheri Biggs (R), running for 2nd term, +46.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE
SC-4: William Timmons (R), running for 5th term, +22.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
SC-5: Open seat, Ralph Norman (R) retiring, +27.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP
SC-6: Jim Clyburn (D), running for 18th term, +22.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
SC-7: Russell Fry (R), running for 3rd term, +30.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
CAROLINAS SUMMARY
Democrat 4
Republican 16
Leaner 1 (NC-1)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on NC-1 (Democrat leaner). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won elsewhere, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Rumor is they may have movement now on the restricting - would hope to make this a 17-3-1.
Wonderful work.
What would we do without your talent and experience - you are a blessing to us all.