Why Iran, and Why Now?

Analysis from a usual skeptic on the realities of realpolitik

If you thought the political right’s fallout over the Charlie Kirk shooting was bad, wait and see how things turn out over the Iran shellacking if it goes on much longer (which I think it will, at least for 10 days or so). As I indicated in Saturday’s article, I consider these four things keys to a successful operation:

• No conventional forces deployed on the ground (GOOD SO FAR)

• Khamenei and line of succession eliminated (ONGOING)

• Pro-West head of state in power (WAITING)

• Economic benefit to the United States (WAITING)

My article correctly predicted the demise of Ayatollah Khamenei based on the image of the bombing site, which has caused peak derangement on the left and part of the right based on a scan of the online environment. Polarization over issues has set in within the various political factions, and has created an environment in which one must strictly adhere to one pure position rather than assess the full spectrum of the world as it is, and it is breaking brains.

I had this happen in life once, when I went on a “paleo” diet. I didn’t just go on that diet; I purged every last item not considered part of that diet to the point I wasn’t even fun to go out anywhere with. It became a religion. I no longer eat that diet and enjoy a well-rounded one in which I’m not worried about eating a piece of cake at a kid’s birthday party, or a slice of pizza watching a game. The same needs to happen in the political world.

You see, I am an Army intelligence veteran. My job is to see the world as it is, and that requires an understanding of realpolitik. Realpolitik doesn’t have to make sense. America was allied with the Soviet Union in World War II for the singular purpose of winning the war, and damn near blew each other off Earth by 1948. I am watching people online accuse those who see the Iran effort for what it is of being compromised Israeli assets, and I myself have also been accused of being an Israel (and by extension, Jewish) hater for having frank opinions about the world as it is today and not trusting any foreign nation, including those our government considers “allies.” I feel this way because foreign policy is a strange discipline understood by few, as noted above, not because of my opinions about people (and their ideologies, religions, or ethnicities) who live in any of these countries.

I lost a years long friendship last year with a Jewish conservative because I dared commend Jewish Arizona GOP State Representative Alex Kolodin for voting against an anti-Semitic hate speech bill last year, and received this message:

Anyone not thinking emotionally should back Representative Kolodin, unless they want to live in a place resembling the United Kingdom in which anyone can move to call anything “hate speech” and have you locked away like our distant cousins have been for saying things online the authorities deem a threat to peaceful society. Needless to say, any issue remotely related to Israel today brings with it peak emotional energy. You have the Ted Cruzes of the world who think Israel can do no wrong, and then you have guys like this on Truth Social telling me that I’m a traitor for assessing this kinetic conflict like an adult:

Wait, I want Americans to die for Zionism? Or maybe, after a few more points, I can explain why I believe President Trump is ripping out the Iranian menace - because I trust no government. I don’t trust my own government (nor should you, nor does the President - although I think they’re capable of more good than usual for the time being), I don’t trust Israel’s government, and I don’t trust any foreign government. I am an equal opportunity hater when it comes to the governments of the world, and there would be no such thing as “classified” intelligence if other nations’ governments could be trusted.

Even poor Rachel is getting hit by psychopaths online for pointing out how many former Trump supporters now siding exclusively with Thomas Massie and the “look at me” sorority girl, Marjorie Taylor Greene, appear to be rooting for the Iranian regime:

DoBetterAZ.com (@jill_arizona) is Jill Henderson from Pima County, Arizona, who was part of Rachel’s team in 2022 when she (Rachel) was first elected. Jill has Rachel’s cell phone number but finds it a better use of time to sit on X, call her a “bitch,” and share left-wing content all day now that she’s finally finished publicly burning all her MAGA gear for clicks. She’s still busy this morning rattling off to an audience watching her snap, crackle, and pop - because algorithms have broken her brain and made her view anyone who doesn’t march in lockstep with her exact opinions as an enemy - yelling into an abyss with practically zero interaction except for this acknowledgement, so thousands of Pima County peers can see the spectacle firsthand. Update: Jill is currently stalking all of Rachel’s social media. It’s always in the eyes:

Psychotic woman looking for attention and obsessing over someone she disagrees with

This is my long monologue for getting to my ultimate point - that is, in order to understand the current military operation in Iran, you must divorce it from your feelings pertaining to Israel, no matter if they are good or bad. If you’re looking for a place to park your feelings, you could always be like me and not trust any foreign government and accept the fact that global strategy and foreign policy makes no sense, and never has.

The Long-Term Purpose of Regime Eradication

---

I should make a note - if you find yourself online cheering for and supporting the Iranian regime, get a new hobby that involves the outdoors and no access to the internet. It is detestable that this nation is so awash in leftist white women who march in the streets here as if they are deprived of rights, yet never mention things like I lived through in Afghanistan - like reading nightly reports of women being stoned for learning how to read. They most certainly don’t mention the total denial of basic decency and rights to women in Iran, either, who are forced to wear their bedsheets everywhere they go to appease a regime of cavemen, after their culture had been one of the most storied and proud ones to be found anywhere in the world.

But this operation isn’t, and shouldn’t be, about human rights. That may sound harsh, especially since the regime has slaughtered tens of thousands in recent weeks after uprisings, but there is no shortage of human rights violations in the world today. If we made justice our standard, we would never have peace. Go look at how big Africa is on a globe (not a flat map) and you’ll understand what I’m getting at. This conflict brings short-term pain (for us) to end a long standing nuisance in three realms:

---

I. The Chief Sponsor of Worldwide Terror

We wasted our time in Iraq and Afghanistan, and if we had it to do over again, probably should have sacrificed the Bush administration’s political capital (which was squandered anyway) to vanquish Iran instead of marching our troops through bazaars and along mountainsides in two mostly useless pursuits that sucked up two decades of military readiness, blood, and treasure.

Those are two prime examples of the “endless wars” Trump speaks of. Who was behind most of the supply of arms and weaponry (IEDs, in particular) that maimed and killed American troops? The Iranian regime, which so many broken brains are cheering for today. Uprooting the primary source of global terror greatly impacts the quantity of problems abroad Western partners must deal with, but now the sleeper cells and decades of legal immigration are going to be a major pain in the ass to deal with.

---

II. Nuclear Power

Remember that part about not trusting any foreign governments? I meant it, but that doesn’t mean that they’re not sometimes right. If you believe for a second that a regime capable of killing tens of thousands of its citizens in the streets and raping its women wouldn’t lie to the world about its intentions with nuclear capabilities (that they wouldn’t be used for offensive purposes), you’re naive. The regime is committed to global victory for its ideology (by any means necessary). Research the term “taqiyya” for more on what I mean here.

With such power and intense incentive with so much domestic unrest to control uprisings and local restrictions, the leading sponsor of worldwide terror would resort to anything necessary to maintain a grip on power. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see major atrocities in these last days of the regime until it becomes obvious to the entire rank structure the game is up. And on another note, pretty soon you’ll never hear this phrase again, which will bring about peace in a way you may have never imagined it:

Iran is just weeks, if not days, away from having a nuclear weapon.

---

III. Chinese Dominance and “America First”

Critics of military force contend actions like those ongoing, or those in Venezuela last month, betray Trump’s pledge to rein in “endless wars.” It seems to me, however, that Iran has been at war with us for 47 years. Trump has railed against regime change, a valid criticism, but no situation remains static forever and a run-only football team may find itself in a need to pass the football if they get down too much and don’t have enough time to run the football. So it is with being limited to a four-year term thanks to the theft of the 2020 election.

I have a book recommendation for you, which I’ve found absolutely fascinating:

Tim Marshall’s Prisoners of Geography, published in 2016, examines 10 geopolitical hotspots that drive the way nation states behave with regard to foreign policy. The first three chapters are about Russia, China, and the United States, respectively. Marshall assesses China as a land power for the first 4,000 years of its existence only now wading into a pursuit of naval dominance. They are decades from matching us militarily, which would require an unbroken string of economic success (theirs is fragile) and a continued decline for the United States along the lines of what we’ve experienced in the past two decades.

Until now, China has been content to control its vast swath of the Asian continent. That, with the established goals and behaviors of its navy, appears to be changing rapidly. It is no mistake that Venezuela and Iran have been targeted by the Trump administration this year, and as Marshall points out on page 63, China seeks to rival the United States by becoming a “two ocean” power (Pacific and Indian) - seeking out deep-water ports throughout Southern Asia.

Page 61:

From the South China Sea, Chinese ships would still have problems, whether they headed toward the Pacific or the Indian Ocean - which is the world’s waterway for the gas and oil without which China would collapse.

Iran is (was) China’s anchor for westward expansion on the Asian continent, and as you know, the Chinese had a major foothold in the Western Hemisphere tied to their alliance with Venezuela that was disrupted by the ouster of Nicolas Maduro. The U.S.-China proxy war is one of bets - China is betting on continued U.S. weakness and decline, and on their own economic success continuing indefinitely.

---

Conclusion

To understand the conflicts of 2026, you must understand China and their long-term goals, which break from 4 millennia of absence upon the world’s oceans and cast them in the role of modern day expeditionary superpower replacing the United States as the big fish in the sea. China’s situation resembles Japan’s in the days leading up to World War II, in which they were greatly threatened by lack of access to resources, primarily oil.

Venezuela and Iran contribute roughly 20% of China’s crude oil supply, but once disrupted, that is more than enough to cause serious economic issues with China, which must placate a population of 1.4 billion people of entangled ethnicities who barely get along as it stands today. Disrupting China’s network of enablers today, while they are still overmatched economically and militarily by us, appears to be Trump’s overarching goal - not the pursuit of more endless wars that bring no tangible benefit to the people of the United States.

The world is a messy place. Viewing it in a linear fashion related to your opinion of Israel (or the U.K., Germany, UAE, Japan, Argentina, or Iran) will lead you to half-baked conclusions not accurately portraying the considerations of modern-day foreign policy and the execution of conventional military operations by U.S. forces for the first time in over two decades. China has no regard for human rights; should they become the supreme power of the world, there is no “America First” - we would become like the U.K., a fading power of what “once was” relegated to serving the Chinese superpower.

---

Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.