Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. This forecast/prediction contains proprietary mapping data beyond the paywall information prepared by the author for analytical purposes.
I. The Race
Michael Bouchard (Republican) is a young Army officer veteran running to replace John James in MI-10. His father, Michael Bouchard, Sr., has been the sheriff of Oakland County since 1999, which gives Michael Jr. strong name recognition and significant local infrastructure.
Christina Hines (Democrat) is another person relatively new to politics. She is a career prosecutor who ran for Macomb County Prosecutor in 2024 unsuccessfully, and she has built her campaign around generic Democrat priorities like healthcare and affordability. She’s been fairly careful about containing any Trump Derangement Syndrome in a district that has moved heavily to the right in the Trump era.
II. District Geography
Michigan’s 10th Congressional District (MI-10) is heavily urbanized and consists of most of Macomb County, and a tiny sliver of northeastern Oakland County. It features a clashing of coalitions, with traditional Republicans in parts of the district (like Oakland County), and Trumplicans spread throughout Macomb County, which has a recent presidential track record like this:
Macomb sits over 21 points and 100,000 net margin right of where it landed when Obama carried it in 2008. Barring this working-class transformation, the present district wouldn’t be competitive. Here is how it has performed in terms of presidential margin in the past three cycles (as drawn today):
The low Trump margin from 2020 is definitely owed to the corruption of that election cycle and the doubling of mail-in balloting from 2016 to 2020 in Michigan; still, the part of the district that sandbags the margin is the portion of Oakland County made up of precincts that have gradually drifted away from the GOP (around Rochester), matching the county’s trajectory.
Key Statistics
72.8% White, 13.3% Black, 6.1% Asian
III. Market Assessment
In a low volume market, Polymarket bettors favor Hines, although not by ludicrous splits such as those we see in other races.
IV. History
There is little use in analyzing the exact seat going back more than a few cycles. In the 2010s, what is now MI-10 was divided into multiple districts with safe partisan margins. In the very first race using the present boundaries, John James prevailed by an eyelash over his Democrat opponent, with a margin of a half-point. Looking at the minor party splits, it seems Andrea Kirby saved James:
James then ran for reelection in 2024 (once again facing off with Marlinga) and ran almost dead even with Trump, signifying the shift in the partisan infrastructure in the district:
James then did what James does, and ran off to the next biggest thing in a year that once again favors Democrats to win the governorship. He’s challenging Jocelyn Benson instead of defending a seat the Democrats would have been all over anyway, and now risks a third statewide defeat in eight years. In case I’m not making myself clear, he’d have been a lot better off holding down this seat in a tough cycle than forcing the party to defend it so heavily. If James wins and proves me wrong, then I’ll recant my sentiments.
The recent history of MI-10 highlights the growing strength of the Trump-aligned GOP, primarily in Macomb County, but leaves no doubt that another race for an open seat is going to come down to a photo finish.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Democrats avoided the error their primary voters inflicted upon them in MI-7, where they nominated radical DSA-aligned candidate Will Lawrence to take on Tom Barrett.
