Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File.
A special one-year offer to become a paid subscriber is available for 10 more days:
I. The Race
Michele Tafoya (Republican) is new to politics after a career as a sports broadcaster and is running on an anti-corruption platform in a state that has that problem in every direction.
Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) is the sitting lieutenant governor of Minnesota, having won alongside Tim Walz in 2018 and 2022, with her second win by a reduced margin of +7.7%. She has worked to conceal Minnesota’s substantial fraud and corruption, participated in anti-ICE chaos, and is not uniformly supported by Democrat factions within the state.
Yes, It’s Time for the Insurrection Act in Minnesota
I’ve spent too much time talking about Minnesota lately - a state that makes up less than two percent of all Electoral College votes; then again, maybe if that state wasn’t responsible for so much of the malaise and “resistance” in this country, I wouldn’t feel compelled to address every last scandal, like:
II. State Profile
Minnesota is the GOP’s white whale. It is the state with the longest standing Democrat-voting streak in presidential elections, with 13 consecutive wins stretching back to 1976. Donald Trump almost joined Richard Nixon and his predecessors in the hall of GOP nominees to carry the state in 2016, primarily because of third-party defectors from Hillary Clinton, but missed it by 1.5%. Since then, the state legislature has enacted the standard litany of blue state laws loosening up election rules, laws, and procedures to ensure the Twin Cities can get over the top of what has been an increasingly reddening state for most of two decades.
In 2024, Trump won the 85 counties outside of Hennepin and Ramsey Counties (the two dominant blue counties of the Twin Cities metro) by 12.7%. Unfortunately, he got clobbered in the two that prop Democrats up statewide:
Hennepin and Ramsey produce roughly 30% of all ballots cast in Minnesota’s elections. Without serious gains there, GOP statewide candidates are on the outside looking in. How strongly those two counties tie Flanagan to fraud and corruption, and the degree to which they respond to midterm dynamics, will make or break Tafoya’s campaign.
Demographic Statistics
76.3% White, 6.9% Black, 6.1% Hispanic
III. Market Assessment
Polymarket bettors have Flanagan shares positioned at 89%. This is surprising, since polling (the main driver of trades on the platform) is suggesting a closer-than-normal race. Tafoya shares offer huge returns if she pulls the upset.
IV. History
This is the first Senate race I’ve profiled this year with no incumbent. Tina Smith’s retirement left the seat open, so neither Tafoya nor Flanagan will get the incumbency boost. In Minnesota, it is powerful; here are Amy Klobuchar’s margins for the other seat:
2006 +20.1%
2012 +34.7%
2018 +24.1%
2024 +15.7%
Notably, Klobuchar’s 2018 margin ran 22.6% right of the 2016 presidential result. Walz, running for governor, won by 11.4%; however, the polarizing Keith Ellison only won the Attorney General’s office by 3.9%. Flanagan resembles Ellison far more than she resembles Klobuchar, who is a shoe-in to replace Walz as governor. Minnesota’s U.S. House races were a mixed bag in 2018, with Democrats flipping two suburban seats but losing two rural seats in a full realignment of the suburbs and the state’s Iron Range and southern rural areas. In short, 2018’s elections, from the first Trump midterm, do not suggest automatic Democrat success - although Tina Smith won her special election for the seat Flanagan and Tafoya are after by +10.6%.
The 2022 midterm results, despite comfortable Walz and Flanagan reelections, saw Ellison barely scrape by (+0.8%). If Minnesota voters (Democrat insistence aside) continue to prioritize going after corruption, the U.S. Senate race could be this year’s big sleeper.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Tafoya won with a bare majority in a crowded field that included 2024 Senate nominee, Royce White. Unlike the GOP gubernatorial primary, I am not aware of any drama here that will prevent Tafoya from having Republicans behind her campaign.
Democrats, on the other hand, are the ones with the primary problem.