Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File.
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I. The Race
Pete Ricketts (Republican), the state’s former governor, stepped in to complete Ben Sasse’s second term as Nebraska’s junior senator by winning a special election in 2024. He outran President Trump by 4.7%, and senior senator Deb Fischer, running against Osborn on the same ticket, by 18.5%. His run this year requires a quick campaign turnaround, as it falls into the standard six-year slot for his seat.
Dan Osborn (“Independent”) is the labor union leader and faux Democrat taking his second consecutive crack at the United States Senate after giving Fischer a run for her money in 2024. There are three minor candidates officially in the race, but everyone knows it’s a two-man show between Ricketts and Osborn.
How My Midterm Forecasts Will Look + Recordings Reveal Harsh Dem* Reality
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II. State Profile
Nebraska is a presidential carbon copy of Kansas, except further to the right. It hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since 1964’s national landslide for Lyndon B. Johnson; however, it used to play Democrat ball in other races, and as recently in 2006 when it reelected Ben Nelson to the U.S. Senate instead of (ironically) electing Ricketts - whom Nelson stomped. Once Nelson retired, the state’s partisan lean took over and began sending two Republicans to Washington, D.C., to represent Nebraskans in the Senate.
Kamala Harris carried just two counties in 2004 - Douglas (metro Omaha) and Lancaster (metro Lincoln/University of Nebraska). Unfortunately, because the unicameral legislature is run by fools with little desire to win, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is becoming unwinnable for GOP presidential candidates and will probably be won by the Democrats this year in the U.S. House race (to be profiled soon) now that the seat is open. Fischer beat Osborn in 2024 despite running a lazy campaign; the gray-shaded precincts below are the ones Osborn carried:
Other than a few outliers in the northeast, he did his damage in Omaha and Lincoln; however, as shown in the precinct map, the key to a presumptive win in 2026 will be to further erode the margins Republican strongholds, allowing the urban areas to put him over the top. The map in terms of red and gray (blue) will not look much different than the one above and will only vary in terms of intensity one way or the other. Osborn is currently doing all he can to make sure the red shades are deeper in intensity, as I will reiterate later in this piece.
Demographic Statistics
75.7% White, 12.0% Latino, 4.8% Black
III. Market Assessment
Despite the relatively close call in 2024, Polymarket bettors consider Ricketts a clear favorite, with even higher odds than Roger Marshall in Kansas.
IV. History
Osborn ran a close race in 2024 by posing as an “independent voice” against Fischer, the weaker of Nebraska’s two Senators (+15.5% margin in 2012, +19.1% margin in 2018). In contrast, Ben Sasse won in 2014 by +32.9%, and then again in 2020 by +38.3%. Sasse’s 2020 performance, even normalized to give all of his opponents’ vote shares to the Democrat alone, ran well ahead of Trump’s large presidential margin.
With Sasse out of the picture, enter Governor Ricketts. His margins for governor land in between Fischer’s for Senate (+17.9% in 2014, +18.0% in 2018), but he carries significant clout. His father, Joe, is a billionaire who founded TD Ameritrade and essentially owns the Chicago Cubs and Wrigley Field. With Osborn having come close in 2024, there is no more “sneaking up,” and Ricketts’ funding will serve as a means of simply turning out the “red” vote.
Nebraska’s days of electing straight-blue politicians to federal office are over. That is why Osborn is running as an “independent” - he knows the history and understands the partisanship.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Ricketts faced no real opposition, taking 81.5% in the GOP Senate primary this year. Osborn, running with an “independent” label, didn’t have a primary, but the Democrats did: