A Reality-Based View of 2028 Democrat Presidential Contenders (August 2026)
In three months, the field will really begin taking shape: what it means for the future of America with the DSA in view.
Predicting presidential elections is like reaching back and throwing the high cheese with your best fastball. They are the easiest elections to predict, more so than special elections and definitely easier than midterms. This is what makes them steadier:
Fuller turnouts
Continuation or reversal of established trendlines
Voter registration by party
Benchmark from cousin state (for example, pegging New Jersey based on where New York is)
Being good at predicting midterms is a different story. That’s like a masterful changeup or curveball since the fastball isn’t working. There are going to be a lot of people who are way wrong this November because they don’t know about the 92 years of midterm history setting the stage for 2026, nor do they consider the severity of the redistricting changes that give the GOP a chance for a real upset.
The Eight “Wait and See” Decisions that Will Make or Break the 2026 Midterms for the GOP
One of the most famous hits of my childhood came when a relatively unknown Braves backup catcher named Francisco Cabrera, playing in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series, stroked a pinch-hit single against the Pirates to advance Atlanta to the 1992 World Series
Ultimately, midterms are hard to nail because they rest so heavily on who the president is. Certain seats are not in play for the GOP this year because Donald Trump is president, just as they weren’t in play when Reagan was president. The next time a Democrat is president (God help us), certain seats will be out of reach for them, too. Midterms are so stubborn that if you want to do well in them, you almost have to hope your party isn’t in the White House - and no one wants that.
In three months (or four when we allow for the time California and Washington need to count ballots), the stage will be set for the first Democrats to start making their way to center stage to serve as party standard bearer in an emerging DSA Age.
The DSA Drift: Are We Truly Surprised?
It’s been almost two weeks since three “Democratic Socialists” championed by Zohran Mamdani bulldozed their way to U.S. House nominations in overwhelmingly blue seats in New York City. Two of them had to do it the old-fashioned way and unseat incumbents, and the other just had to ride what has been a rising tide for almost two decades. I wrote about the New York primary, and what it means for the future of American politics, here:
Top Four Democrats for the Party Nomination
KAMALA HARRIS
Why I Think She’s Running
She had an opportunity to run for (and win) the governorship of California this fall, but declined. That’s the biggest tell. The next biggest tell is how she’s being trotted out with a makeover to cheerlead for the Democrats, all while ripping off Trump’s lines like “too big to rig.”
Why She Can Win the Nomination
Democrats are jettisoning New Hampshire and trying to shift focus to South Carolina, a state they can’t win presidentially, so the black vote gets her off to a huge start. If you believe polls, she commands that vote handily over anticipated candidates, and it was Jim Clyburn’s pull here that got Biden’s campaign off of life support.
Why She Can’t Win the Nomination
Four years older, four years less appealing, and four years still as unintelligent and unoriginal as she’s always been. She’s counting on being the next Trump, to fight back against all odds and make it back to the top. There’s only one problem - she’s no Donald Trump, and she’s no more likely to win over the blue collars in the Midwest in 2028 than she was two years ago when she hemorrhaged the party’s minority support.
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