August 2026 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds

My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.

Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this recurring study, please see the March 2025 summary.

Last month’s report can be found here.

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FLORIDA

Net Shift Since July: R+14,082

• Florida Democrats can’t catch a break. They added 24,463 new party members in the run-up to primaries this month and still got smoked by a net 14,082 (more than June) by the GOP. Republicans have now widened their lead by a net of 429,717 since the November 2024 election, a truly astounding performance. If you don’t ever want to live under Democrats, move to Florida.

• Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds in the next presidential election. Florida appears to be emerging as the premier GOP superstate, passing Texas (although not in order of importance by electoral votes and House seats).

• Races to watch: FL-14 (leaner), FL-22 (leaner), FL-25 (decisive)

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IOWA

Net Shift Since July: D+583

• After a big gain in June directly tied to primaries, it’s back to a grind, although a small gain for Democrats on paper. Iowa has a bigger GOP registration advantage by raw count than it did in November 2024, but slightly left as a percentage thanks to a larger count of registered voters.

• Iowa is worth tracking because it has a valid correlation to the shifts in Wisconsin and Minnesota, which cannot be precisely tracked by party registration. Furthermore, Iowa has two extremely competitive House seats that must be watched closely, and now a gubernatorial contest looking tight.

• Races to watch: IA-1 (decisive), IA-3 (decisive), U.S. Senate, Governor

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PENNSYLVANIA

Net Shift Since July: D+7,079 Total, R+34,722 Active

• Democrats put up an overall gain similar to their June pickup, suggesting they have active voter registration efforts underway in the urban areas; however, a voter roll purge annihilated more than half of what active voter registration lead remained for Democrats. Was this prompted by the big exposé in New Jersey, and a purge of non-citizens perhaps?

• I’m certainly happy to see the overall lead get close to a tie, but Democrat gains in the overall roll suggest a mixed bag ahead of midterms. I think the Democrat lurch to DSA-driven is going to prevent Pennsylvania from making a serious move back to blue.

• Races to watch: PA-1 (leaner), PA-7 (decisive), PA-8 (decisive), PA-10 (decisive)

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NORTH CAROLINA

Net Shift Since July: D+136 Total, D+3,611 Active

• The overall voter roll has a lot less volatility (D+136) than in Pennsylvania, which makes me think Democrats have two vastly different operations going on in those states; however, the Democrats had a nice gain in active registrations, which could just be efforts to reactivate existing registrations rather than finding entirely new voters.

• With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina the most likely to flip to Democrats in 2026, with Michael Whatley the Republican nominee.

• Races to watch: NC-1 (leaner), U.S. Senate

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NEW HAMPSHIRE

Net Shift Since July: R+4,085

• New Hampshire’s first update in three months is out, and it’s a big gain for the GOP. This is a product of voter roll maintenance (we’ll still take it), which is down 57,486 since last update.

• The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election.

• Races to watch: NH-1 (leaner), U.S. Senate

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ARIZONA

Net Shift Since July: D+8,005

• It’s been a while since I’ve updated Arizona, but the Secretary of State’s numbers dropped last month, so I’ve captured them here. Democrats have made up +8,005 registrations in the last few months, mostly out of Maricopa County.

• Arizona’s statewide offices are up for grabs this year, and the Democrats have a real shot at flipping the legislature for the first time since the 1960s, so the battle for voter registration looms large. I have a strong suspicion that the GOP is having membership issues with the Mormon church, also evident in Utah - and not good for the 2026 midterm outlook. I remain optimistic long-term for Arizona, but the GOP needs to get serious on its urban strategy.

• Races to watch: AZ-1 (decisive), AZ-6 (decisive), all statewide offices

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NEVADA

Net Shift Since July: D+1,335

• Democrats expanded their lead by another 1,335 last month, but that was three times lower than June, which points to recent gains being tied to primaries. As expected, last month was powered by Clark County - but also by voter roll maintenance in red counties. Washoe County was mostly a push, and is a better representation of the balance of power than any other county.

• Races to watch: NV-3 (leaner), all statewide offices

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Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

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