December 2025 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds
My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.
Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this recurring study, please see the March summary.
Last month’s report can be found here.
FLORIDA
Net shift since November: R+12,746
Republicans made another gain in November, pushing the state to R+10.5% - nearly three points right of where it was in November 2024 when Trump won by over 13 points.
Duval County has shifted to within a single point for the fading Democrat registration advantage, which suggests Georgia is also getting redder.
Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds.
IOWA
Net Shift since November: R+422
Not much change from previous month, but no signs of slippage in the upper Midwest since Iowa is a reliable proxy for Minnesota and, more importantly, Wisconsin.
PENNSYLVANIA
Net Shift since November: D+96
Scott Presler is wrong to sound the alarm over Pennsylvania. The net change to the voter roll shows the slightest of Democrat gains, but an investigation into the 67 counties suggests the change was due to registration maintenance after November elections.
To give multiple examples, Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties got redder, as did the key bellwethers I monitor, Erie and Northampton. The changes in those counties do not suggest blue traction in the Keystone. The overall roll shrank, with the Trumpiest of Trumpy counties like Westmoreland losing registrations (-400) and for both parties (-139 D, - 184 R). Beware of panic over statistical noise.
Democrats have lost over 40% of the registration advantage they held in November 2024, when Trump won the state comfortably.
NORTH CAROLINA
Net Shift since November: R+2,993
My updates show the figures for the very first update of a given month. North Carolina’s first December update, not reflected in the graphic above, puts the Democrats below 2,000 for overall registration advantage. It is likely my prediction North Carolina will flip Republican by the end of the year will come to fruition and be reflected in January’s report.
With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina one of two Republican Senate seats at risk in the 2026 midterms.
The next GOP presidential candidate, if these trends persist, should carry North Carolina by at least 5 points.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Net Shift since November: None
New Hampshire releases quarterly updates and isn’t due for another until February 2026.
The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election, and has several important races on the ballot in 2026, like a U.S. Senate seat and the battle for NH-1, which Democrat Chris Pappas will vacate to run for that Senate seat.
ARIZONA
Net Shift since November: D+7,091
Read carefully: My unofficial numbers for Arizona registrations include constant updates for Maricopa and Pima Counties, which I have access to. There is sometimes a wide variance between my figures and the numbers periodically reported by the Secretary of State.
Arizona, on surface level, reflects a frightening trend on the top line (D+7,091 shift from my November report). I have confirmed the reason for this shift - Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap purged more than 140,000 registrations from the county roll last month.
Republicans lost more registrations in Maricopa than Democrats since the county is heavily Republican, but wound up with a high registration advantage by percentage (R+7.3% to R+7.5%) since so many non-partisan registrations were also vanquished. Heap’s maintenance effort last month eliminated more than 5% of Maricopa County’s voter roll, which is a major clapback against mail-in ballot fraud and ballot stuffing capabilities for those who do that sort of thing to get unappealing, uncharismatic, and frumpy gubernatorial candidates “elected” - and potentially “reelected.”
NEVADA
Net Shift since November: R+982
Another good month for Nevada, which stands to have some competitive U.S. House races in November 2026, as well as statewide candidates on the ballot.
Clark County (metro Las Vegas) went slightly to the left from November, but Washoe County (metro Reno) had a big GOP pickup (+1,276 net) thanks to voter roll maintenance scrubbing ineligible Democrats from the books at a greater rate than their Republican counterparts.
CONCLUSION
Voter registration by party remains the best way to keep tabs on the true disposition of states, particularly regarding presidential elections. Turnout differentials, midterm dynamics, candidate quality, and other factors impact non-presidential races and may override these trends in the short-run. With that said, I think the GOP has a better chance to hold the house than Polymarket’s opportunity gives below:
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
When Republicans lose registered voters in PA, it's because they left the state; not because they turned into liberals. When Democrats lose voters in PA, its because of "losing my religion" or else because they really weren't there to begin with (the fake identity created for the 2020 steal was found out and purged from the lists).
EXCELLENT work, Captain!
And with scandals such as what is being uncovered in Minnesota- that should also help.