End of June 2026 Senate Majority Race Update

Making it simple to punch through the fake news and their efforts to mislead.

Yesterday, I whittled down the battle for the U.S. House majority to 23 decisive races. It’s going to be close, no matter how you slice it:

While most consider the House the most likely chamber to flip control, far fewer feel the same about the Senate:

The reasoning is simple - only 35 Senate seats are up this cycle, and the map is a monster for Democrats.

Republicans have a stranglehold on 16, and Democrats on 10. That leaves nine Senate races ostensibly in play. I divide them into two camps for now:

Key Races

• Georgia (Jon Ossoff - D, incumbent)

• Maine (Susan Collins - R, incumbent)

• Michigan (Democrat-held, incumbent retiring)

• New Hampshire (Democrat-held, incumbent retiring)

• North Carolina (Republican-held, incumbent retiring)

Second-Tier Races

• Alaska (Dan Sullivan - R, incumbent)

• Iowa (Republican-held, incumbent retiring)

• Ohio (Jon Husted - R, incumbent)

• Texas (Republican-held, incumbent defeated in primary)

Republicans currently hold a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate, which would be much larger if we had fair elections. You can read my book, The American War on Election Corruption, if you’d like more detail on that matter.

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How the Math Shakes Out

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If the Democrats win all five key races:

51 to 49 Republican.

I do believe Michael Whatley is in deep doo-doo in North Carolina against former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper, and as such, is running for the most likely GOP-held seat to be lost. Thom Tillis didn’t do anyone any favors with his miserable tenure in the Senate, but Whatley doesn’t appear to know his ass from a hole in the ground when it comes to appealing to voters - and he has ignored election integrity-minded patriots for years. Still, North Carolina prefers federal Republicans, so I doubt Cooper has a high ceiling, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the race tighten.

I’ve written extensively about Susan Collins, and why I think she is likely to hold her seat:

Michigan is no “gimme” for the Democrats, because they appear to be on the verge of nominating an Islamic extremist against Mike Rogers, who would have won his seat in 2024 if not for late-counted mail-in ballots arriving en masse immediately after Trump was declared the winner of the state. New Hampshire will be a fairly tight race, but Democrats definitely have the edge in a Republican president’s midterm. Likewise, with Ossoff a clear favorite, Democrats don’t have the ceiling clearance to coast in Georgia and will need to spend big there to make sure they don’t get upset.

I think the most likely outcome of these five races is Republicans hold the line with 52 or 53 seats, depending on the result in Michigan.

If, if, if, if (and a big if) Democrats win all five key races:

They will need to win two of Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas to take a 51 to 49 Democrat majority.

Now you understand why the math doesn’t math well for them.

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Conclusion

The Democrats can take a Senate majority this year. The only problems for them are that they must win all five key races, and then take two Senate seats out of solid Republican states, and that Senate races (as evidenced by the blue wave in the House in 2018, but a +2 gain for the GOP in the Senate) are less volatile and likely to swing like House districts.

I will keep everyone apprised of these races as time elapses. Your paid support of this newsletter is greatly appreciated.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

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