Is the MAGA Coalition Fractured Beyond Repair?

An analysis deliberately avoiding the highest of highs and lowest of lows, with an eye on the long run

By now, I hope you have noticed a pattern in my writing. I spend most of my creative energy in addressing those things people trust me most for:

• Forecasting

• Analysis

• Coverage of election reform and election manipulation

• Geopolitical analysis from a Military Intelligence viewpoint

Over the years, people have asked me why I don’t seem to care about COVID-19 vaccines, January 6, or other areas of focus in the greater MAGA grassroots movements, but the fact is - I do care about them. I also have enough respect for voices of wisdom running parallel to me to let them have the airwaves and not hog their space. When someone with hundreds of thousands of subscribers online and on Substack segues into someone else’s lane and gets it wrong, then it causes issues for everyone. We saw it a lot last year when respected journalists covering broad topics stepped into the line of fire on election coverage, got it wrong, and made everyone irritated.

I have been greatly irritated by the online space, especially X, for the last 7 weeks, primarily because it is a hub of negativity that does little by way of pushing action and everything by way of extravagant bitching. There are several pollsters I trust for data who entered into the funnel of online doom and have struggled to pull out of it. What makes it worse is that I am the one who feels like the fool for spreading optimism and focusing on the long-term battle for the survival of the Republic. This newsletter wouldn’t be worth reading if it never levied criticism against the administration or called things like they were. There have been multiple elections this year in which I told you Democrats were going to win, narratives were going to start, and Republicans have a lot of work to do when it comes to motivating voters without Trump on the ticket. I called the Wisconsin Supreme Court race by a comfortable margin for the Democrat-sanctioned candidate, plus the top of the ticket races in Virginia and New Jersey. I have addressed weak points in various executive actions and suggested areas for stronger, and have also cautioned against escalations of various conflicts throughout the world based on my understanding of military strategy and history.

You should reject rah-rah voices incapable of seeing fault, but likewise, it is necessary to rein in voices that do nothing but despair. They are particularly dangerous because they demoralize the greater effort for long-term success. I have waited to address the movement’s turmoil, but must take a stab at it now before it consumes even more people in paralysis by analysis. None of my monologue here, to this point, answers the question posed by the title of today’s article:

Is the MAGA coalition fractured beyond repair?

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First and foremost, the de facto leader of the MAGA movement has 3 years, 2 months, and 3 days left until he hands over the presidency to his successor. By virtue of so much time remaining on the clock, more than three-quarters of the term, “fractured beyond repair” is out. I will address this question with two items suggesting a need for positivity about the administration, and two suggesting imminent danger that could lead to graver consequences if not addressed.

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ON THE POSITIVE

Positive Point 1 - A Purely Internet Phenomenon?

One of the great flaws of our political system is that eight to ten major ideologies are stuffed into a system that requires supporting of one of two major parties. You can argue with me all you want about Libertarians, Greens, and No Labels, but significant minor party support died off in the 1990s, and big money on advertising, voter contact, and pointing out polarization canalizes the electorate one way or the other. It is even more pronounced in midterm years, in which minor parties don’t bother fielding candidates for House and Senate seats, let alone legislative chambers.

With this noted, I must now point out that I track voter registration by party for a reason. It is the clearest indicator of voter sentiment and the most predictive way of pegging the trajectory of states for the next presidential election. There are 30 states that register voters by party, and in every state but New York and Utah, Republicans have a greater raw registration lead (or smaller deficit) than they did in the November 2024 election. New York’s drift is owed to the Mayoral race, in which everyone and their mother registered Democrat to pick the next Mayor, and Utah’s is owed to voter roll maintenance in what is an overwhelmingly Republican state. Democrats are making gains practically nowhere.

This could change, of course, and if it does, you’ll read about it here before you’ll read about it anywhere else. States were notably swinging away from Obama by the time of the 2010 midterms, and in 2012, 43 of 50 states moved toward Romney from the previous election. I will be able to definitely tell you the country is moving away from MAGA if and when I see it in the voter registration file. This does not mean Republicans are going to win the 2026 midterms, as those elections are a different animal and subject to political dynamics consistent for over nine decades. It does, however, point to sustained Republican success over the long-run and a transformation of the electorate. So far, voters in the greater electorate aren’t getting the online message to embrace Democrats. They may - but so far, they have not.

This means Trump is still the man in the arena with the ability, and most importantly, the time, to make things happen.

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