I’ve written about America’s obsession with football in such a way as to describe it as a year-round activity. Every time I get a haircut or grab a plate of wings in the summer, there are games on from years ago. Sometimes a random one between the Browns and the Chargers no one cared about then, and probably don’t care about now. Between pre-season, regular season, playoffs, the combine, the draft, and training camps, football season really never ends.
It’s like that with elections. The nature of elections requires constant upkeep from mainstream media propagandists and an ongoing recruitment of possible narratives to use against almost exclusively Republican candidates, unless the tools are needed to curate the correct winners in Democrat primaries as we saw recently in Wisconsin after Abdul El-Sayed narrowly snuck across the line in Michigan:
What Part of Napoleon’s Wisdom Don’t We Understand?
Dad used to recycle the same few quotes on repeat. I, predictably, would sigh in exhaustion as a youngster, but looking back, it is impossible to ignore what it is he was trying to convey.
I browsed headlines on X yesterday and was amazed at the level of gaslighting taking place this far from Election Day. It led me to believe there is a major information operation underway to shape the expectations of the electorate, very much like we saw in the run-up to the 2020 quasi election.
Four key items have my attention as I write to you as ballots go out in less than three weeks in the Keystone State, Pennsylvania:
I. It’s Not in the Bag
This example comes from Arizona, which is a heavyweight state this year with all statewide offices up for grabs, and two decisive House seats hanging in the balance (AZ-1 and AZ-6). Before I proceed further, I must caution everyone about the gubernatorial race here. I’ve written previously about why the registration numbers look daunting for Katie Hobbs (Arizona is almost exactly twice as red by registration as it was in 2022, when she stole her own election as Secretary of State), but Arizona has a terrible quirk in that it loves incumbent governors.
No incumbent governor has been fired by voters since 1966, and never since the job became a four-year gig instead of two beginning in 1970.
So, Andy Biggs’s polls are not so hot; the catch is not who people think may win - it’s by how much. There is a massive difference between the flood of recent polls surrounding this race. One group is showing 13 to 15 points, which is absolutely ludicrous. The other is showing 4 to 5 points, which can be closed and makes more sense even to the polling-skeptical. Democrats, when they win (or “win”) the state, win five counties: Maricopa, Pima, Apache, Santa Cruz, and Coconino. A 15-point margin on 2.5 million votes would yield a victory margin of 375,000, which is utterly insane given how competitive Maricopa County is.
And then there’s this:
What? Why would Hobbs need $10 million if she’s wiping the floor with Andy Biggs and incumbent Arizona governors don’t ever lose? Well, that’s because no one believes the double-digit polling and think the Mormon candidate with roots from Tucson and Maricopa County might make a race of it after all.
Another point from Arizona comes from AZ-2, Eli Crane’s district. Remember when that internal Biden polling got leaked after his disastrous debate against President Trump in 2024? He was losing or on the cusp of losing states like New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Minnesota, and New Jersey. If you understand how these races link together in a national election, it means Trump already had Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona in the bag. That’s why Biden had to go.
Likewise, I called AZ-2 as a safe Republican seat, meaning I see very little likelihood of a Democrat flip in 2026. I had to downgrade this by one seat because the moron Max Miller stayed in the race in OH-7 instead of allowing himself to be replaced, but here’s what I wrote about AZ-2:
I’d call Eli Crane in AZ-2 (R) my iffiest “safe” Republican seat, but the Democrats have a very static electorate there and their own internal comms don’t seem very bullish on it.
This designation may actually belong to Monica De La Cruz in TX-15 now that I’ve seen Crane’s internal numbers:
Even if that’s twice as large as it should be, Crane still has the seat by 6 points. He won it by 9 in 2024 alongside a Trump win in the state. Why do we care about this seat? Because his numbers would look a lot shakier if Hobbs was about to wipe the floor with Biggs (as we are concerned about all three GOP-held decisive seats in Pennsylvania pending Shapiro’s coming blowout reelection win), and Crane’s seat actually flipping would be a telltale sign that the Trump base is staying home in November.
II. The Polls at Night are Fake with Fright
Deep in the heart of Texas…
Reminds me of the one I loathe…
That would be the media…
That will be the end of my musical attempt at humor.
