Race for the House: Virginia Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for Virginia’s 11 House seats
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Previous:
INTRODUCTION
In one of the most epic Democrat defeats of the decade, the Virginia Supreme Court struck down the most unfair gerrymander in the history of the nation late last week, which would have likely yielded a 10-1 Democrat-favorable House allotment (up from the 6-5 edge that party enjoys today). I did plenty of writing on that referendum, including the extensive mail-in ballot rigging in the ten independent cities and counties making up Northern Virginia (NoVA) that it takes to blanket over the rest of the state’s voting patterns.
Here is my evaluation of Virginia’s 2024 presidential election:
The Democrats are still burning energy and money trying to fight their own State Supreme Court’s decision, and they are almost certainly going to lose miserably. The prevention of such a blatant rigging now gives Republicans a rational hope (along with the redistricting in the Deep South) of holding the U.S. House majority come November. Polymarket bettors are tightening things a little at a time in favor of the GOP, though Democrats remain a clear favorite:
Analysis
VIRGINIA
VA-1: Rob Wittman (R), running for 11th term, +12.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
VA-3: Bobby Scott (D), running for 18th term, +40.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
VA-4: Jennifer McClellan (D), running for 3rd term, +35.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
VA-5: John McGuire (R), running for 2nd term, +15.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
VA-6: Ben Cline (R), running for 4th term, +28.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
VA-8: Donald Beyer (D), running for 7th term, +47.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R), running for 9th term, +45.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
VA-11: James Walkinshaw (D), running for 2nd term (first election), +34.0% margin in 2024 for Gerry Connolly - SAFE
VIRGINIA SUMMARY
Democrat 4
Republican 4
Leaner 2 (VA-7, VA-10)
Decisive 1 (VA-2)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on VA-2 (decisive), as well as VA-7 and VA-10 (Democrat leaners). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Reading your full story of the VA vote on the redistricting was an eye-opener. Unless you're into it, it's unbelievable how many ways there are to nudge an election in a desired direction. A lot MORE of us should be volunteering to work in elections.
Virginia political operative here. Spot on, for now. While there are headwinds for the GOP right now, it is way too early to make firm assessments given this cycle's extreme volatility, and the increasing insanity by Democrats of nominating extreme candidates and taking extreme positions. I'll wait until early Fall after things settle out with the Iran situation and party primaries.