The Shifting Tide of the 2026 Midterms
One thing is certain, and that is that nothing is for certain.
Dad always had a saying he repeated to me whenever I would place a sense of finality on a baseball game in progress:
The game is never over until the last man is out.
I can’t seem to make anyone happy in 2026 with my forecasting models. Hardcore MAGA wants me to be more bullish even when 92 years of electoral history urges restraint. Left-wingers thinking they’re going to get a 2006 wave can’t see past their own ideologies to recognize neither party has a high ceiling (nor a low floor) thanks to the gerrymandering implemented almost everywhere.
The only constant in my analysis is that I remain committed to accuracy. I want to be right, because in being right, I identify the most actionable paths toward the goal. This intermediate goal is to ensure the President doesn’t get repeatedly impeached and harassed by a Democrat House or have to deal with a Democrat Senate that will stonewall important proceedings, such as the rumored replacement of at least one Supreme Court Justice.
I urge all to follow along in my newsletter as I walk you through the shifting sands of the 2026 midterm environment. So far, I’ve IPB’d (Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield) two regions to identify the playable seats:
Mid-Atlantic (16 DEM, 3 REP, 1 Leaner, 1 Decisive)
New England (19 DEM, 0 REP, 1 Leaner, 1 Decisive)
Total 35 DEM, 3 REP, 2 Leaner, 2 Decisive)
In a way, I’m starting with the bad news, and that disparity above in the seat splits should be enough to justify anything the Southern states may do now that Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act is on the ropes, as I said it would be.
Don’t look now… but those Southern states, prompted by the DOJ, are getting with the President’s program:
It seems, just maybe, there has been a plan all along.
If Virginia’s scam redistricting, which violates the state’s constitution, is shut down, then the markets are likely to start pricing in substantial GOP momentum. There’s little for certain in the world of politics, but when Speaker Mike Johnson says he’s confident the Republicans will win, then maybe you should listen.
He said the same exact thing in 2024, and was right. Maybe, like yours truly, the Speaker would rather be accurate than first to spout off about something that isn’t fully developed. Those gaps are filling in, and I will be doing my damndest to keep you apprised of fact. Thank you for your support of this newsletter!
I am pleased to announce I will be taking a very active role in helping target the most decisive of seats. We are all in on repelling the left in what we pray will truly become the Golden Age.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.