Dems’ Horrific Night in GA + Race for the House: Georgia Overview and Seat Ratings

Preliminary ratings for GA’s 16 House seats and my take on an eventful evening in the Peach State

Today’s piece will give all subscribers my overview of Georgia’s 14 U.S. House seats as I make my way across the country ranking all 435; my analysis of Georgia’s primary night and the key takeaways make up the second portion of today’s publication and are reserved for paid members. Please consider upgrading to support my work and obtain the most accurate and relevant political information available on the platform. Thank you.

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U.S. House Analysis for Georgia

Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.

The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

Previous:

Mid-Atlantic

New England

New York

Pennsylvania

Virginia

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INTRODUCTION

Georgia sports a classic gerrymander quarantining Atlanta into four Democrat safe zones and sparing almost the full remainder of the state for Republicans. Thanks to the Callais decision, Georgia will shed perhaps two racially drawn districts by 2028, dramatically tilting the balance of power statewide and in the Deep South for GOP candidates, even as the state itself looms as one of the most decisive in forthcoming presidential elections. Unfortunately, primaries were underway when the decision dropped, and Governor Brian Kemp was unwilling to do anything dramatic to comply.

Here is my evaluation of Georgia’s 2024 presidential election:

Read full story

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Analysis

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GEORGIA

GA-1: Open seat, Jim Kingston winner of GOP primary, +24.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP

GA-2: Sanford Bishop (D), running for 18th term, +12.6% margin in 2024 in southwest Georgia seat that will be redrawn to comply with Callais - SAFE

GA-3: Brian Jack (R), running for 2nd term, +32.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

GA-4: Hank Johnson (D), running for 11th term, +51.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

GA-5: Nikema Williams (D), running for 4th term, +71.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

GA-6: Lucy McBath (D), running for 5th term, +49.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

GA-7: Rich McCormick (R), running for 3rd term, +29.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

GA-8: Austin Scott (R), running for 9th term, +37.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

GA-9: Andrew Clyde (R), running for 4th term, +38.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

GA-10: Open seat, Houston Gaines winner of GOP primary, +26.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP

GA-11: Open seat, runoff forthcoming for nomination, +33.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP

GA-12: Rick Allen (R), running for 7th term, +20.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

GA-13: Open seat, Jasmine Clark winner of Democrat primary, +43.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM

GA-14: Clay Fuller (R), running for first full term, +28.8% margin in 2024 for Marjorie Taylor Greene - SAFE

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GEORGIA SUMMARY

Democrat 5

Republican 9

All seats in Georgia are safe for one party or the other. Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won, such as the critical statewide races, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.

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Dems (and Fake Republicans) Crushed on Primary Night

I’ve spilled plenty of virtual ink worrying about Georgia in future presidential races. After all, President Trump poured on the votes in 2020 and 2024, vastly surpassing his own 2016 count by which he won the state by 5.1%, having it stolen from him once and then prevailing by just 2.2% in 2024. My concerns are warranted; however, last night, the Democrats rolled a massive gutterball when all data suggested they were due for a massive haul.