Race for the House: Appalachia Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for KY, TN, and WV
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Previous:
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)
New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
INTRODUCTION
While 13 states are technically part of Appalachia, many belong in their own analytical categories within this series. Three overwhelmingly red states I’m grouping together to make up this region for these purposes are Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Democrats pile up massive majorities in their enclaves, and in these states, the opposite is the case. Once Kentucky gets with the Callais routine and eliminates the Louisville seat (KY-3), this area will be a total wipeout for Democrats. Tennessee, thanks to Governor Bill Lee’s push, has already wiped out the Democrats’ Memphis seat (TN-9) in a successful redistricing effort (the map included today does not have accurate boundaries, and will not contain previous margin for incumbents thanks to redraws).
Here is my evaluation of this region’s 2024 presidential election:
Analysis
KENTUCKY
KY-1: James Comer (R), running for 7th term, +49.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
KY-2: Brett Guthrie (R), running for 10th term, +46.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
KY-3: Morgan McGarvey (D), running for 3rd term, +24.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
KY-4: Ed Gallrein (R), winner of GOP primary running for 1st term, uncontested win for Thomas Massie in 2024 - SAFE REP
KY-5: Hal Rogers (R), running for 24th term (longer than I’ve been alive, elected alongside Ronald Reagan), uncontested in 2024 - SAFE
KY-6: Ralph Alvarado (R), winner of GOP primary running for 1st term, +26.0% margin for Andy Barr in 2024 - SAFE REP
TENNESSEE
TN-1: Diana Harshbarger (R), running for 4th term - SAFE
TN-2: Tim Burchett (R), running for 5th term - SAFE
TN-3: Chuck Fleischmann (R), running for 9th term - SAFE
TN-4: Scott DesJarlais (R), running for 9th term - SAFE
TN-5: Andy Ogles (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
TN-6: Open seat, John Rose (R) retiring - SAFE REP
TN-7: Matt Van Epps (R), running for first full term, won special election in 2025 - SAFE
TN-8: David Kustoff (R), running for 6th term - SAFE
TN-9: Open seat, Steve Cohen (D) retiring due to redistricting - REP FLIP
WEST VIRGINIA
WV-1: Carol Miller (R), running for 5th term, +40.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WV-2: Riley Moore (R), running for 2nd term, +41.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
APPALACHIA SUMMARY
Democrat 1
Republican 16
All seats in Appalachia (region as defined in this article) are safe for one party or the other. Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races outside of this region that can be won with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.