Race for the House: Industrial Midwest Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for IN, MI, and OH
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Previous:
Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)
Carolinas (NC, SC)
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)
New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
INTRODUCTION
Ohio redistricted in late 2025, but didn’t cut very deeply or nearly as aggressively as they could have if they truly wanted to put Democrats in a crisis situation in the Buckeye State. Still, an opportunity to pick up two seats is better than the lame efforts of the Indiana Senate, which caved to the nearly powerless Mike Pence faction of the Republican Party and left existing maps completely intact.
In Michigan, a situation similar to that in Pennsylvania is unfolding, in that it is the Republican Party on defense in a tough year. This state, unlike Indiana and Ohio, has some of the worst election laws in the country to contend with on top of the 2026 midterm dynamics already likely to favor Democrats.
Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:
Analysis
INDIANA
IN-1: Frank Mrvan (D), running for 4th term, +8.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IN-2: Rudy Yakym (R), running for 4th term, +28.1% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IN-3: Marlin Stutzman (R), running for 2nd term, +33.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IN-4: Jim Baird (R), running for 5th term, +33.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IN-5: Victoria Spartz (R), running for 4th term, +18.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IN-6: Jefferson Shreve (R), running for 2nd term, +33.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IN-7: Andre Carson (D), running for 11th term, +39.3% margin in 2024 (Indianapolis seat) - SAFE
IN-8: Mark Messmer (R), running for 2nd term, +38.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IN-9: Erin Houchin (R), running for 3rd term, +31.7% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MICHIGAN
MI-1: Jack Bergman (R), running for 6th term, +21.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MI-2: John Moolenaar (R), running for 7th term, +33.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MI-3: Hillary Scholten (D), running for 3rd term, +9.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MI-4: Bill Huizenga (R), running for 9th term, +11.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MI-5: Tim Walberg (R), running for 9th term, +32.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MI-6: Debbie Dingell (D), running for 7th term, +27.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MI-9: Lisa McClain (R), running for 4th term, +37.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MI-11: Open seat, Haley Stevens (D) retiring, +18.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM
MI-12: Rashida Tlaib (D), running for 5th term, +44.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MI-13: Shri Thanedar (D), running for 3rd term, +44.1% margin in 2024 - SAFE
OHIO
OH-2: David Taylor (R), running for 2nd term, +33.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
OH-3: Joyce Beatty (D), running for 8th term (Columbus seat) - SAFE
OH-4: Jim Jordan (R), running for 11th term - SAFE
OH-5: Bob Latta (R), running for 11th term - SAFE
OH-6: Michael Rulli (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
OH-7: Max Miller (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
OH-8: Warren Davidson (R), running for 7th term - SAFE
OH-10: Michael Turner (R), running for 13th term - SAFE
OH-11: Shontel Brown (D), running for 4th term (Cleveland seat) - SAFE
OH-12: Troy Balderson (R), running for 6th term - SAFE
OH-14: David Joyce (R), running for 8th term - SAFE
OH-15: Mike Carey (R), running for 4th term - SAFE
INDUSTRIAL MIDWEST SUMMARY
Democrat 9
Republican 22
Leaner 2 (MI-8, OH-1)
Decisive 4 (MI-7, MI-10, OH-9, OH-13)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on MI-8 and OH-1 (Democrat leaners) and MI-7, MI-10, OH-9, and OH-13 (decisive seats). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
The Industrial Midwest is Trump country because Trump says out loud what the ruling-class machine wants memory-holed. They shipped away the jobs, opened the border, let fentanyl and chaos pour into working-class towns, then sneered when Americans noticed their communities changing in real time. Trump’s 2024 line hit because it captured the whole absurd collapse: They are eating the dogs, they are eating the cats, they are eating the pets!—and the elites still demand silence. Keshel is right: target the winnable Michigan and Ohio races, fix rotten election laws, and stop letting weak Republicans waste the battlefield. America First means survival here.