Inside the Florida Phenomenon + Race for the House: Florida Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for FL’s 28 House seats and my overview of a growing red fortress
Today’s piece will give all subscribers my overview of Florida’s 28 U.S. House seats as I make my way across the country ranking all 435; the overview of these House seats is available to all subscribers, but I’ve reserved the deeper analysis of Florida’s long-term prospects for paying subscribers. Please consider upgrading to support my work and obtain the most accurate and relevant political information available on the platform. Thank you.
U.S. House Analysis for Florida
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)
Carolinas (NC, SC)
Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)
New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
INTRODUCTION
Even before the Callais decision dropped, Governor Ron DeSantis had convened a special session of the Florida legislature to respond to Virginia’s lawless 10-1 gerrymander that ran afoul of its own constitution. The ultimate poetic justice hit when Virginia’s new maps were thrown out by the Virginia Supreme Court, and Florida preserved not only its existing 20 Republican seats with its own new map, but opened up the possibility for four more GOP flips with no risk whatsoever. I am presenting Florida’s 28 seats below without 2024 margin since they’ve been redrawn, and am taking some liberties in assuming the nominees come November since I’m writing this just ahead of the state’s primaries.
This is because Florida has reddened at a breakneck pace, the South Florida Latino vote continues to shift to the right, and the transplants are turning Florida into its own political phenomenon, which I’ll describe in detail after the House seats assessments. Florida also has the luxury of running elections post-Senate Bill 524, which tightened up the cheat loopholes available in the state’s election system. You can read about that bill and what it fixed in my book, The American War on Election Corruption:
Here is my evaluation of Florida’s 2024 presidential election:
Analysis
FLORIDA
FL-1: Jimmy Patronis (R), running for 1st full term - SAFE
FL-2: Open seat, Neal Dunn (R) retiring - SAFE
FL-3: Kat Cammack (R), running for 4th term - SAFE
FL-4: Aaron Bean (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
FL-5: John Rutherford (R), running for 6th term - SAFE
FL-6: Randy Fine (R), running for 1st full term - SAFE
FL-7: Cory Mills (R), running for 3rd term but facing serious primary - SAFE
FL-8: Mike Haridopolos (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE
FL-9: New Republican, Darren Soto (D) forecasts to be drawn out by redistricting - REP FLIP
FL-10: Maxwell Frost (D), running for 3rd term (Orlando seat) - SAFE
FL-11: Open seat, Dan Webster (R) retiring - SAFE
FL-12: Gus Bilirakis (R), running for 11th term - SAFE
FL-13: Anna Paulina Luna (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
FL-15: Laurel Lee (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
FL-16: Open seat, Vern Buchanan (R) retiring - SAFE
FL-17: Greg Steube (R), running for 5th term - SAFE
FL-18: Scott Franklin (R), running for 4th term - SAFE
FL-19: Open seat, Byron Donalds (R) retiring to run for Governor - SAFE
FL-20: Open seat, Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) running in newly redrawn district and likely nominee, Fort Lauderdale seat - SAFE DEM
FL-21: Brian Mast (R), running for 6th term - SAFE
FL-23: Open seat, Lois Frankel (D) running in newly redrawn district and likely nominee, West Palm Beach seat - SAFE DEM
FL-24: Frederica Wilson (D), running for 9th term, Miami seat - SAFE
FL-26: Mario Diaz-Balart (R), running for 13th term - SAFE
FL-27: Maria Salazar (R), running for 4th term - SAFE
FL-28: Carlos Gimenez (R), running for 4th term - SAFE
FLORIDA SUMMARY
Democrat 4
Republican 21
Leaner 2 (FL-14, FL-22)
Decisive 1 (FL-25)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on FL-14 and FL-22 (Democrat leaners - please note, that just means which party currently holds the seats) and FL-25 (decisive seat). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources these races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Florida - The New Texas?
I am not and have never been a Blue Texas doomer. I get sick of listening to Democrats every single cycle telling everyone that this is the year they finally flip Texas, because they see Instagram reels of Austin and make the mistake of believing that the rest of the state doesn’t despise that entire metro area. While Texas isn’t on the verge of becoming a Democrat stronghold thanks to in-migration and the shifting of Latinos toward the GOP, it is clear Democrats do know how to read the trend lines. This has caused them to all but abandon Florida, and for good cause.
Gamblers trying to strike it rich should read this piece and adjust their Polymarket lines:
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