Race for the House: Illinois + Iowa Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for IL and IA
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Previous:
Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)
Carolinas (NC, SC)
Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)
New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
INTRODUCTION
With New England and New York behind, these evaluations have been getting redder and redder. That stops with this installment and the extreme gerrymander that is Illinois, where over 12 Democrat districts can be found within 50 miles of one another, all crammed into the northeast corner of the state and drawn out of Chicago and the surrounding counties.
Illinois’ Republican districts are artfully scattered throughout the vast hinterlands of the state, but Democrats still carved two more for Rock Island and East St. Louis, respectively. In Iowa, Republicans currently hold all four seats, but are going to be on defense in two races that look to be photo finishes in the making.
Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:
Analysis
ILLINOIS
IL-1: Jonathan Jackson (D), running for 3rd term, +31.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IL-2: Open seat with Donna Miller nominated, Robin Kelly (D) retiring, +35.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM
IL-3: Delia Ramirez (D), running for 3rd term, +34.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IL-4: Open seat with Patty Garcia nominated, Jesus Garcia (D) retiring, +40.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM
IL-5: Mike Quigley (D), running for 10th term, +38.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IL-6: Sean Casten (D), running for 5th term, +8.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IL-7: Open seat with La Shawn Ford nominated, Danny Davis (D) retiring, +66.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM
IL-8: Open seat with Melissa Bean nominated, Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) retiring, +14.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM
IL-9: Open seat with Daniel Bliss nominated, Jan Schakowsky (D) retiring, +36.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM
IL-10: Brad Schneider (D), running for 6th term, +20.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IL-11: Bill Foster (D), running for 8th term, +11.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IL-12: Mike Bost (R), running for 7th term, +49.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IL-13: Nikki Budzinski (D), running for 3rd term, +16.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IL-14: Lauren Underwood (D), running for 5th term, +10.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IL-15: Mary Miller (R), running for 4th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE
IL-16: Darin LaHood (R), running for 7th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE
IL-17: Eric Sorensen (D), running for 3rd term, +8.8% in 2024 would be a leaner in a favorable GOP year, but not in 2026 - SAFE
IOWA
IA-2: Open seat, Ashley Hinson (R) retiring to run for U.S. Senate, +15.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP
IA-4: Open seat, Randy Feenstra (R) retiring to run for governor, +34.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP
ILLINOIS + IOWA SUMMARY
Democrat 14
Republican 5
Decisive 2 (IA-1, IA-3)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on IA-1 and IA-3 (decisive seats). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Illinois is lost. Give up the short yardage abutting Lake Michigan and stop pretending Chicago’s gerrymandered blue fortress is worth bleeding over in 2026. This is basic battlefield discipline. You do not charge machine-gun nests because consultants want to pretend every race is competitive. Illinois is a Democrat cartography crime scene, and the short yardage along Lake Michigan is already conceded by design. Put resources where votes can move seats: Iowa’s 1st and 3rd Districts. Defend the open Republican terrain, drill down on the decisive races, and force Democrats to fight outside their urban fortress. Chicago politics turned Illinois into a blue congressional meat grinder. So stop feeding it Republican money. Hold the rural and small-city ground, win Iowa, and spend like adults.
I'm stuck in IL-6 with the pathetic Sean Casten. Our district is a irregularly shaped gerrymander - though not as absurd as the earmuff-shaped IL-4, which was drawn to maximize/concentrate the Latino vote. It's sickening.
My county, DuPage, just west enough of Chicago to be reliably Republican until the last 15-20 years when idiot libs started fleeing Chicago and bringing their politics with them. They flee what Democrat policies wrought in Chicago for the safer, more peaceful and conservative western suburbs, but bring their liberal biases with them. They've changed the area for the worse.
Where once sat Henry Hyde we now have Sean Casten, a snot-nosed liberal child.
I might be backing the underdog but I have high hopes that enough Reoublican voters show up and back Niki Conforti and we can send Sean Casten back to his mommy's basement.