Dems Salivate for Texas + Race for the House: Texas Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for Texas’s 38 U.S. House seats
Today’s piece will give all subscribers my overview of Texas’s 38 U.S. House seats as I make my way across the country ranking all 435; the overview of these House seats is available to all subscribers, but I’ve reserved the deeper analysis of Texas’s battle to stay red through all seasons for paying subscribers.
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Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Previous:
Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)
Carolinas (NC, SC)
Deep South (AL, LA, MS)
Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)
New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
INTRODUCTION
MAGA Americans first became optimistic for the 2026 midterms when Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed new maps into law that essentially guaranteed Republicans would improve upon a 25-13 U.S. House seat advantage over Democrats.
The maps held up in court, and while many think they are sure to pick up five new seats for the GOP, I’m not so certain that will pay off as soon as 2026. California, which is currently running a complete embarrassment of a primary election, is trying to wipe out five GOP seats and is more likely than not to get the edge on Texas. Fortunately for the rest of us, Virginia’s criminal enterprise was shut down last month, and the Republicans have now officially won the skirmish post-Callais.
Here is my evaluation of Texas’s 2024 presidential election:
Analysis
TEXAS
TX-1: Nathaniel Moran (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
TX-2: Open seat, Steve Toth (R) winner of GOP primary unseating Dan Crenshaw - SAFE REP
TX-3: Keith Self (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
TX-4: Pat Fallon (R), running for 4th term - SAFE
TX-5: Lance Gooden (R), running for 5th term - SAFE
TX-6: Jake Ellzey (R), running for 4th term - SAFE
TX-7: Lizzie Fletcher (D), running for 5th term - SAFE
TX-8: Open seat, Jessica Steinmann (R) winner of GOP primary - SAFE REP
TX-9: Open seat, Alex Mealer (R) winner of GOP primary - REP FLIP
TX-10: Open seat, Chris Gober (R) winner of GOP primary - SAFE REP
TX-11: August Pfluger (R), running for 4th term - SAFE
TX-12: Craig Goldman (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE
TX-13: Ronny Jackson (R), running for 4th term - SAFE
TX-14: Randy Weber (R), running for 8th term - SAFE
TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
TX-16: Veronica Escobar (D), running for 5th term in El Paso seat - SAFE
TX-17: Pete Sessions (R), running for 4th term - SAFE
TX-18: Christian Menefee (D), running for 1st full term - SAFE
TX-19: Open seat, Tom Sell (R) winner of GOP primary - SAFE REP
TX-20: Joaquin Castro (D), running for 8th term in San Antonio seat - SAFE
TX-21: Open seat, Mark Teixeira (R) winner of GOP primary - SAFE REP
TX-22: Open seat, Trever Nehls (R) winner of GOP primary - SAFE REP
TX-23: Open seat, Brandon Herrera (R) winner of GOP primary - SAFE REP
TX-24: Beth Van Duyne (R), running for 4th term - SAFE
TX-25: Roger Williams (R), running for 8th term - SAFE
TX-26: Brandon Gill (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE
TX-27: Michael Cloud (R), running for 6th term - SAFE
TX-29: Sylvia Garcia (D), running for 5th term - SAFE
TX-30: Open seat, Frederick Haynes (D) winner of DEM primary to replace Jasmine Crockett - SAFE DEM
TX-31: John Carter (R), running for 13th term - SAFE
TX-32: Open seat, Jace Yarbrough (R) winner of GOP primary - REP FLIP
TX-33: Open seat, Colin Allred (D) winner of DEM primary - SAFE DEM
TX-35: Open seat, Carlos De La Cruz (R) winner of GOP primary - REP FLIP
TX-36: Brian Babin (R), running for 7th term - SAFE
TX-37: Open seat, Greg Casar (D) running for first term in new boundaries of Austin seat (3rd term overall) - SAFE DEM
TX-38: Open seat, Jon Bonck (R) winner of GOP primary to replace Wesley Hunt - SAFE REP
TEXAS SUMMARY
Democrat 8
Republican 28
Leaner 1 (TX-28)
Decisive 1 (TX-34)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on TX-28 (Democrat leaner) and TX-34 (decisive seat). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources these races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for, rather than spending on seats already decided.
It’s Time to Turn Texas Blue…Yet Again
You can set your watch to it, it’s so predictable. Every two years, this is the year Texas is finally ready to turn over a new leaf, reject the brand of politics that has made it one of the primary landing spots for political refugees from failed states, and return to the Democrat fold it belonged to in the days of slavery all the way up until the middle of the 20th century, when it became playable on the presidential level for the GOP.
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