Race for the House: Deep South Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for AL, LA, and MS
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Previous:
Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)
Carolinas (NC, SC)
Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)
New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
INTRODUCTION
With Georgia’s primary front and center two weeks ago, I separated the Peach State from the rest of the region I am calling the “Deep South.” I’ve had to take a “wait and see” approach on Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi with so much up in the air since the Callais decision was handed down just over a month ago, which paves the way to fully end racially drawn district lines.
Yesterday, the Supreme Court allowed Alabama to proceed with a previously struck down map that stands to net the GOP an extra seat. Louisiana took a cut at one seat of their own post-Callais, and Mississippi punted for another time and saved Bennie Thompson for perhaps one final term. With the dust settled, I’m now ready to give my opinion. Sadly, the Deep South (plus South Carolina) could have all but secured the midterms for the GOP with a little bit of fortitude needed to squeeze out an extra three seats from what we will find in this analysis.
Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:
Analysis
ALABAMA
AL-1: Open seat with Jerry Carl nominated, Barry Moore (R) retiring to run for U.S. Senate - SAFE REP
AL-2: Shomari Figures (D) redistricted out, Hampton Harris nominated for GOP - REP FLIP
AL-3: Mike Rogers (R), running for 13th term - SAFE
AL-4: Robert Aderholt (R), running for 16th term - SAFE
AL-5: Dale Strong (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
AL-6: Gary Palmer (R), running for 7th term - SAFE
AL-7: Terri Sewell (D), running for 9th term - SAFE
LOUISIANA
LA-1: Steve Scalise (R), running for 11th term - SAFE
LA-2: Troy Carter (D), running for 4th term and allowed to survive by the legislature - SAFE
LA-3: Clay Higgins (R), running for 6th term - SAFE
LA-4: Mike Johnson (R), Speaker of the House, running for 6th term - SAFE
LA-5: Open seat, Julia Letlow (R) retiring to run for U.S. Senate - SAFE REP
LA-6: Cleo Fields (D) redistricted out, GOP nomination open - REP FLIP
MS-1: Trent Kelly (R), running for 7th term, +39.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MS-2: Bennie Thompson (D), running for 18th term and allowed to survive by the governor, +24.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MS-3: Michael Guest (R), running for 5th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE
MS-4: Mike Ezell (R), running for 3rd term, +47.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
DEEP SOUTH SUMMARY
Democrat 3
Republican 14
None of the 17 seats in the Deep South figure to be competitive. Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won outside of this region, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.