Race for the House: Upper Midwest Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for MN and WI
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Previous:
Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)
Carolinas (NC, SC)
Deep South (AL, LA, MS)
Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)
New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
INTRODUCTION
Minnesota, despite having widely documented financial fraud and election laws that allow for popular vote rigging, has one of the fairest U.S. House maps in the country that perfectly captures the urban-rural divide in the state. Wisconsin, thanks to its normally Republican lean in the legislature and the concentration of leftists in two urban areas, strongly favors the GOP, although many are concerned the Democrats’ penchant for winning state Supreme Court races will eventually result in newly drawn maps that will chip into that power.
Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:
Analysis
MINNESOTA
MN-1: Brad Finstad (R), running for 4th term, +17.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MN-2: Open seat, Angie Craig (D) retiring, +13.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM
MN-3: Kelly Morrison (D), running for 2nd term, +17.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MN-4: Betty McCollum (D), running for 14th term, +34.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MN-5: Ilhan Omar (D), running for 5th term, +50.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MN-6: Tom Emmer (R), running for 7th term, +25.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MN-7: Michelle Fischbach (R), running for 4th term, +41.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MN-8: Pete Stauber (R), running for 5th term, +16.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WISCONSIN
WI-1: Bryan Steil (R), running for 5th term, +10.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WI-2: Mark Pocan (D), running for 8th term, +40.2% margin in 2024 in Madison seat - SAFE
WI-4: Gwen Moore (D), running for 12th term, +52.4% margin in 2024 in Milwaukee seat - SAFE
WI-5: Scott Fitzgerald (R), running for 4th term, +29.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WI-6: Glenn Grothman (R), running for 7th term, +22.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WI-7: Open seat, Tom Tiffany (R) retiring to run for Governor, +27.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP
WI-8: Tony Wied (R), running for 3rd term, +14.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
UPPER MIDWEST SUMMARY
Democrat 6
Republican 9
Decisive 1 (WI-3)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on WI-3 (decisive seat). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won rather than those not considered competitive, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
This is not about “competitive geography.” This is about stopping the ruling-class machine from turning the Upper Midwest into another managed-decline colony. Minnesota shows the disease: urban Marxists, migrant-politics machines, soft fraud rules, and a protected Democrat infrastructure that treats normal Americans like tax cattle. Wisconsin is the firewall. Hold WI-3, protect the GOP map, and keep Madison’s leftists and Milwaukee’s machine from dragging the state into permanent blue dependency. Republicans who chase vanity races are fools. Patriots should fight where victory matters. Secure WI-3, police the ballots, expose the machines, and make the Upper Midwest a wall against the Red-Green coalition.