Race for the House: Ozarks + Plains Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for AR, KS, MO, NE, ND, OK, and SD
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Previous:
Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)
Carolinas (NC, SC)
Deep South (AL, LA, MS)
Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)
New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
Upper Midwest (MN, WI)
INTRODUCTION
I am grouping the Ozarks and Great Plains into a single region in order to consolidate these ratings more effectively. As far as uniform party support goes, it serves as a smaller version of the South for Republicans, with very little opportunity to do anything other than cash in. Thanks to the retirement of Don Bacon, NE-2 looms as the most critical seat in this region. President Trump won it in 2016, but has not carried that lone electoral vote in his last two races. Two states, North Dakota and South Dakota, have just a single at-large representative each.
It is worth noting that Kansas and Nebraska both have sufficient red space to ensure Democrats have no winnable seats to compete for, yet have chosen to “kinder and gentler” approach to dealing with leftists.
Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:
Analysis
ARKANSAS
AR-1: Rick Crawford (R), running for 9th term, +48.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE
AR-2: French Hill (R), running for 7th term, +17.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
AR-3: Steve Womack (R), running for 9th term, +32.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
AR-4: Bruce Westerman (R), running for 7th term, +45.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
KANSAS
KS-1: Tracey Mann (R), running for 4th term, +38.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
KS-2: Derek Schmidt (R), running for 2nd term, +18.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE
KS-3: Sharice Davids (D), running for 5th term, +10.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
KS-4: Ron Estes (R), running for 6th term, +30.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MISSOURI
MO-1: Wesley Bell (D), running for 2nd term in St. Louis seat - SAFE
MO-2: Ann Wagner (R), running for 8th term - SAFE
MO-3: Bob Onder (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE
MO-4: Mark Alford (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
MO-5: GOP nominee pending August primary, Emanuel Cleaver (D) being drawn out by redistricting - REP FLIP
MO-6: Open seat, Sam Graves (R) retiring - SAFE REP
MO-7: Eric Burlison (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
MO-8: Jason Smith (R), running for 8th term - SAFE
NEBRASKA
NE-1: Mike Flood (R), running for 4th term, +20.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NE-3: Adrian Smith (R), running for 11th term, +60.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NORTH DAKOTA
ND-AL: Julie Fedorchak (R), running for 2nd term, +39.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
OKLAHOMA
OK-1: Open seat, Kevin Hern (R) retiring, +25.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP
OK-2: Josh Brecheen (R), running for 3rd term, +52.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
OK-3: Frank Lucas (R), running for 18th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE
OK-4: Tom Cole (R), running for 13th term, +36.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE
OK-5: Stephanie Bice (R), running for 4th term, +21.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
SOUTH DAKOTA
SD-AL: Marty Jackley nominated, Dusty Johnson (R) retiring, +44.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP
OZARKS + PLAINS SUMMARY
Democrat 2
Republican 23
Decisive 1 (NE-2)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on NE-2 (decisive seat). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won rather than those not considered competitive, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
The insight here is resource discipline. Republicans do not need another fundraising circus built around safe red seats and fantasy targets. Here, the GOP’s real opportunity is converting structural advantage into actual seats while protecting against midterm drag. Missouri’s 5th is the offensive play because redistricting can turn a Democrat incumbent into a stranded relic. NE-2 is the defensive danger because Omaha is the kind of suburban, Biden-friendly, college-credentialed battlefield where Republicans often get out-messaged. Cash in everywhere else. Fight like hell there.
Looks like people in fly over country have common sense.