Race for the House: Rockies Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for CO, ID, MT, and WY
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Previous:
Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)
Carolinas (NC, SC)
Deep South (AL, LA, MS)
Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)
New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
Ozarks + Plains (AR, KS, MO, NE, ND, SK, OK)
Upper Midwest (MN, WI)
INTRODUCTION
For this year’s analysis, I am sending Utah to the Southwest region, which will be previewed on Tuesday. The Rockies groups Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming into a minor region featuring just 13 seats (only 3% of the U.S. House), with over 60% of those featured in Colorado. Montana received a second congressional district at the start of this decade thanks to its rapid population growth, leaving Wyoming as the only state in the region with a single at-large Congressman.
Colorado, despite its horrific Universal Mail-In Voting system and lopsided urban population in the Denver area, has one of the fairest House maps around, currently featuring a 4-4 split between the parties the Democrats are seeking to undo Virginia-style for 2028. That 4-4 split is subject to change this year with the GOP defending a leaner (CO-3) and one of the truest tossups in the 2026 race, CO-8. While MT-1 is unlikely to flip to Democrats, it stands are the first seat out of the “Safe GOP” listing - a move I made just this week.
Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:
Analysis
COLORADO
CO-1: Diana DeGette (D), running for 16th term, +53.9% margin in 2024 in Denver seat - SAFE
CO-2: Joe Neguse (D), running for 5th term, +39.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE
CO-4: Lauren Boebert (R), running for 4th term, +11.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
CO-5: Jeff Crank (R), running for 2nd term, +13.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
CO-6: Jason Crow (D), running for 5th term, +20.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE
CO-7: Brittany Pettersen (D), running for 3rd term, +14.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
IDAHO
ID-1: Ross Fulcher (R), running for 5th term, +45.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
ID-2: Michael Simpson (R), running for 15th term, +30.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MONTANA
MT-2: Troy Downing (R), running for 2nd term, +32.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WYOMING
WY-AL: Open seat, Harriet Hageman (R) retiring to run for U.S. Senate, +47.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP
ROCKIES SUMMARY
Democrat 4
Republican 6
Leaner 2 (CO-3, MT-1)
Decisive 1 (CO-8)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on CO-3 and MT-1 (leaners) and the decisive seat of CO-8. Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won rather than those not considered competitive, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
The insight is that Colorado is not worth romanticizing anymore. The GOP can win seats there, but the state culture has shifted hard: Denver runs the table, the woke suburbs provide the moral vanity, and the rural counties get dragged behind policies they never wanted. That does not mean surrender every district. It means triage. CO-8 is where the fight matters because Gabe Evans flipped it in 2024 and Democrats are already organizing a serious rematch field. CO-3 is defense with opportunity. The rest is mostly theater. Spend where victory is possible. Stop funding nostalgia. Colorado is not coming back through sentiment.