Race for the House: Southwest Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for AZ, NV, NM, and UT
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Previous:
Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)
Carolinas (NC, SC)
Deep South (AL, LA, MS)
Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)
New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
Ozarks + Plains (AR, KS, MO, NE, ND, SK, OK)
Rockies (CO, ID, MT, WY)
Upper Midwest (MN, WI)
INTRODUCTION
As we barrel toward the Pacific Ocean, one last overland stopping point remains - the Southwest. While we may disagree on which states should be in this region, my set includes Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. All four states run terrible, mail-in heavy elections, making tossup races that much more difficult to secure for Republican candidates as vote counts stretch on until the job is done.
Arizona has two vital seats that will likely be among the tipping point states for the overall majority, and it’s Republicans on defense in both. Nevada continues to show promise as a future GOP outpost, but the Democrats have gerrymandered Las Vegas into three separate districts. New Mexico’s Democrats masterfully cut out the oil country in the state’s southeast to blend with urban areas near Albuquerque, and in a real twist of fate, Utah lost one of its guaranteed GOP seats when a state Supreme Court judge sided with the lawyer presenting the Democrat side of the case who she just happened to be, well, uh… Let’s move on.
Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:
Analysis
ARIZONA
AZ-2: Eli Crane (R), running for 3rd term, +9.0% margin in 2024 to keep an eye on - SAFE
AZ-3: Yassamin Ansari (D), running for 2nd term, +44.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE
AZ-4: Greg Stanton (D), running for 5th term, +7.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
AZ-5: Open seat, Andy Biggs (R) retiring to run for Governor, +20.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP
AZ-7: Adelita Grijalva (D), running for 1st full term, +26.8% margin in 2024 for Raul Grijalva - SAFE
AZ-8: Abraham Hamadeh (R), running for 2nd term, +13.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
AZ-9: Paul Gosar (R), running for 9th term, +30.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NEVADA
NV-1: Dina Titus (D), running for 8th term, +7.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NV-2: Open seat with David Flippo nominated, Mark Amodei (R) retiring, +18.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP
NV-4: Steven Horsford (D), running for 5th term, +8.1% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NEW MEXICO
NM-1: Melanie Stansbury (D), running for 4th term, +12.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NM-3: Teresa Leger Fernandez (D), running for 4th term, +11.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
UTAH
UT-1: Blake Moore (R) redistricted out, Democrat nomination open - DEM FLIP
UT-2: Celeste Maloy (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE
UT-3: Mike Kennedy (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE
UT-4: Open seat, Burgess Owens (R) retiring - SAFE REP
SOUTHWEST SUMMARY
Democrat 8
Republican 8
Leaner 2 (NV-3, NM-2)
Decisive 2 (AZ-1, AZ-6)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on NV-3 and NM-2 (leaners) and the decisive seats of AZ-1 and AZ-6. Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won rather than those not considered competitive, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
France can run paper-ballot national elections and know the result on election night, but Arizona needs days of Maricopa suspense and ballot-cure theater? Please. The permanent political class hides behind “local process” because mail-in fog protects the machine. Keshel’s point is resource discipline, but the bigger point is structural: Republicans are fighting candidates and election systems at the same time. Same-day voting, verified mail ballots only by request, proof of citizenship, voter ID, and fast public results are minimum standards. The Democrat Party calls that suppression because chaos is its turnout model. Clean the system and the Southwest goes red.