Race for the House: Northwest + Far West Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for AK, HI, OR, and WA
To the reader: This final 2026 U.S. House Overview regional piece is released on this Monday (when paid articles are normally released) as a “freebie.” A paid subscribers only piece will be released tomorrow (Tuesday) as a comprehensive overview.
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Previous:
Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)
Carolinas (NC, SC)
Deep South (AL, LA, MS)
Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)
New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
Ozarks + Plains (AR, KS, MO, NE, ND, SK, OK)
Rockies (CO, ID, MT, WY)
Southwest (AZ, NV, NM, UT)
Upper Midwest (MN, WI)
INTRODUCTION
It is hard to follow an act as bad as California’s, but these four states may as well be dubbed “where close election victories go to die.” Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington are three of eight states nationally that use Universal Mail-In Voting, fueled by Automatic Voter Registration and fully legalized ballot harvesting.
Alaska doesn’t have it quite as bad, but the Last Frontier is one of just two states running Ranked Choice Voting in federal elections. That has allowed Lisa Murkowski to survive well beyond her political expiration date as a poorly-suited United States Senator, and what vaulted Mary Peltola (Democrat) into the U.S. House over the legendary Sarah Palin and the current U.S. Representative, Nick Begich, in 2022, despite these first choice round results:
Surprisingly, Oregon has three tightly-decided Democrat seats according to 2024 margins. If this were a Republican-favorable year, I’d say the Republican Party should be aggressive and deploy all the ballot harvesters/chasers they can pay. This year, I don’t think the drift is in the GOP’s favor. This is about holding onto the three easy seats and going after three remaining seats in some of the toughest, most excruciating electoral environments you can find anywhere in the country.
Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:
Analysis
HAWAII
HI-1: Ed Case (D), running for 5th term, +43.6% margin in 2024 in Honolulu seat - SAFE
HI-2: Jill Tokuda (D), running for 3rd term, +36.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
OREGON
OR-1: Suzanne Bonamici (D), running for 9th term, +40.7% margin in 2024 - SAFE
OR-2: Cliff Bentz (R), running for 4th term, +31.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
OR-3: Maxine Dexter (D), running for 2nd term, +42.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
OR-4: Val Hoyle (D), running for 3rd term, +7.8% margin in 2024 - a leaner in a Republican-favorable year but not 2026 - SAFE
OR-6: Andrea Salinas (D), running for 3rd term, +6.8% margin in 2024 - a leaner in a Republican-favorable year but not 2026 - SAFE
WASHINGTON
WA-1: Suzan DelBene (D), running for 9th term, +26.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WA-2: Rick Larsen (D), running for 14th term, +27.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WA-4: Open seat with Captain K-endorsed Jerrod Sessler running, Dan Newhouse (R) retiring, Republican vs. Republican in 2024 - SAFE REP
WA-5: Michael Baumgartner (R), running for 2nd term, +20.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WA-6: Emily Randall (D), running for 2nd term, +13.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WA-7: Pramila Jayapal (D), running for 6th term, +68.1% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WA-8: Kim Schrier (D), running for 5th term, +8.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WA-9: Adam Smith (D), running for 16th term, +33.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
WA-10: Marilyn Strickland (D), running for 4th term, +17.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NORTHWEST + FAR WEST SUMMARY
Democrat 13
Republican 3
Leaner 1 (OR-5)
Decisive 2 (AK-AL, WA-3)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on OR-5 (Democrat leaner) and AK-AL and WA-3 (decisive seats). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
“……..toughest, most excruciating electoral environments you can find anywhere in the country.” THIS is where I live and I totally agree with your assessment.
They will NEVER go away easily! A sober lesson for ANY red state!!!!!!!!!!!
The lesson here is not despair. It is discipline. Republicans cannot keep pretending every seat is equally winnable while the Democrat Party enjoys election machinery built for opacity, collection, and delay. Keshel’s map says hold the safe Republican seats, recognize the safe Democrat terrain, and focus hard on the few races where the math still matters: OR-5, Alaska at-large, and WA-3.
But the larger fight is bigger than one cycle. Same-day voting, voter ID, proof of citizenship, clean rolls, hard deadlines, and public counting are not “extreme.” They are the minimum architecture of a republic that still believes elections belong to citizens. Seth talked about it with Michael Volpe and me last week:
https://youtu.be/l1rYt_uYsLQ?si=4w-raVrDs0MNIuXY